In Shanghai, Verstappen is leaving nothing to his rivals: the sprint and the pole position are his!

Hi everyone!

This morning we witnessed for the first time the new Sprint format, introduced this year by Formula 1, with the Sprint itself held before the qualifiying session - also on Saturday - for the actual race. But the biggest news is the abolition of the parc fermé regime between these two events, with the possibility for the teams to analyze (albeit quickly) the outcomes of the short race to make setup changes in view of the rest of the weekend.

Also thanks to this format we saw some very close-fought sessions, but as often happens, from second position downwards... So let's analyze what happened on this Saturday!

Sprint analysis: Verstappen dominant, Hamilton keeps the two Ferraris at bay thanks to Alonso

The 19 laps of the Sprint race ended with the following classification, in which the most surprising driver is certainly Hamilton, in P2 behind Verstappen and ahead of Perez's other Red Bull...

The one who has the most to complain about is Norris, who after starting in first position, found himself side by side and then pushed off track by Hamilton: this made him fall to seventh position, which only became sixth after the Spanish duel between Alonso and Sainz in the final laps... But we'll come back to this shortly, because if there's a scenario that emerged immediately, it was Verstappen's ability to overtake first Alonso and then Hamilton without those two being able to put up any resistance.

Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Having freed himself from the two multiple world champions, Max then held an outstanding pace, which certified a victory with an average advantage close to 1.0 s/lap compared to everyone else. In this context, however, it must also be noted that many in the chasing group were unable to fully express their performance, being blocked by Alonso's defensive tactics which in the final stages turned more into obstructionism.

Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

This brings us to the highlight of the Sprint, with the contact between Fernando and Carlos, from which Perez and Leclerc benefited (in P3 and P4 respectively at the finish line). Although it was a slight contact, the Aston Martin driver then got a time penalty of 10 additional seconds and 3 points added to his superlicence: as much as we don't agree with the extent of the punishment inflicted, it must be admitted that - as fas as regulations are concerned - Alonso pushed Sainz out in Turn 9 in a desperate attempt to recover the lost third position.

The Alonso-Sainz duel triggers that of the Ferrari drvier against his teammate

In fact, Fernando knew that if Carlos had managed to run even just a few corners in front of him after overtaking him on the exit of the Turn 6 hairpin, he would have definitively pulled away from him due to a technical advantage that was undisputed at that point.

Anyway, for over half of the laps covered the defensive strategy on his compatriot from Ferrari was excellent, with a wise use of the extra power provided by the electric side of his Power Unit, hence the impossibility of being overtaken on the long straight that leads to Turn 14.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Once Sainz overtook Alonso, the figure of Charles Leclerc became cumbersome behind him, with whom he engaged in a battle that was perhaps too intense given that he was his teammate: right in Turn 14 their car's tyres collided, and fortunately for the team, there were no punctures. Their duel continued on the following lap, when the Monegasque finally got the better of the Spaniard in Turn 2: from there the positions remained "frozen", with Charles in P4 and Carlos in P5, but it cannot be ruled out that these "skirmishes" could have some consequences already in tomorrow's race...

Qualifying Analysis: front row lockout for Red Bull, Alonso ahead of the two McLarens and the two - still struggling - Ferraris!

Having discussed about Sprint, let's come to what emerged from the qualifying session, which was rather linear in its progress, except for a red flag displayed in Q2, following a contact with the barriers for Carlos Sainz, who however was able to bring his SF-24 back into the pits without further problems...

Pole position goes, as mentioned, to Max Verstappen in 1'33"660: together with him only teammate Sergio Perez was able to lap under 1'34", to be precise in 1'33" 982. The two Red Bulls have once again made the difference compared to their opponents, with themselves led by Fernando Alonso.

Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

We've underlined several times in this opening of the 2024 World Championship how the Aston Martin AMR24, at least with the Alonso at the wheel, is a single-seater capable of a better performance in qualifying than in the race: this, most likely, is dictated by suspension geometries which load put the front tyres under a heavy load, quickly bringing them up to temperature and therefore allowing them to generate maximum grip.

This, however, hides a downside in the form of more pronounced tyre degradation during the race, when for the same reason it's impossible to dissipate the heat from the tyres. A bit of the same phenomenon that we described several times in 2023 when talking about Ferrari, with an SF-23 that featured this characteristic even in a more pronounced fashion than this year's Aston Martin.

The struggles in quali trim continue for the SF-24, a car designed to perform in race conditions...

Given we mentioned Ferrari, we once again witnessed a suboptimal qualifying for Leclerc and Sainz: the reason for these Saturday performances mirrors what we just said about Aston Martin. Nothing more, nothing less.

The additional problem for the team from Maranello, if anything, is that it's Leclerc (today in P6) the one who suffers more from this inconsistency in bringing the tyres up to temperature, who is usually one of the strongest performers in the qualifying sessions.

Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

While it's true that today Charles preceded Carlos (only) for the second time in 2024's qualifying, I think that despite this result his struggles are not over; frankly I believe that optimizing the outlaps isn't that effective, as far as the SF-24 features technical constraints that prevent the two drivers from being quick in qualifying trim. What the two Ferrari drivers can and must do, at least until the introduction of updates that can unlock the overall balance of the car, is to do some damage limitation on Saturday and then come back stronger on Sunday. It was like this in Suzuka, we'll see tomorrow in Shanghai!

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

In comparing the two Prancing Horse drivers, however, we cannot help but point out that the Spaniard had the off-track mentioned at the beginning of this paragraph. In fact, just as he was closing his first attempt in Q2, Carlos lost his car's control on the gravel trap on the outside of Turn 16 (the final 90 degrees left corner). The impact with the barriers - of moderate intensity - fortunately occurred with the front of his SF-24 and not with the rear end, a circumstance in which he could have damaged the gearbox or other fragile mechanical components. He might even have been "condemned" to start from the back of the grid!

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

None of this, as anticipated, happened: once the car was brought back to the pits, the mechanics were able to check that the balance between the two axles was almost intact, thus allowing Sainz to conclude the qualifying - in this case in P7. When commenting on this result, it's therefore mandatory to keep in mind the loss of confidence that a driver suffers on occasions such as that which occurred in Q2: also for this reason, the gap of only 8 thousandths in favour of Leclerc doesn't say much about the state of form of both.

Hamilton's shock elimination in Q1: the Englishman will start from eighteenth positon!

In conclusion, we'd like to point out Hamilton's terrible performance in these qualifying, which even relegated him to P18 with an elimination in the first part of the session that last happened during the 2022 Saudi Arabian GP...

Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

His personal best laptime, in particular, was spoiled by two equally important factors:

  • The decision (with a terrible outcome) to change the set-up of his W15 by taking advantage of the absence of parc fermé rules after the Sprint, even though he had just finished in second place;
  • A driving error in Turn 14, when Hamilton carried the braking phase way too deep, locking up and losing precious time exiting that slow hairpin;

Leaving aside any other consideration, it's surprising how with this new format Hamilton's weekend in China is experiencing two opposite halves: excellent in the Sprint Shootout and in the Sprint, completely te opposite in qualifying. Will he be able to get closer to the positions he deserves during tomorrow's race?

The race is tomorrow at 9.00 am CET: the scheduled laps are 56, and much of the story of this Chinese Grand Prix is still to be written...

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