Japanese GP free practice: Verstappen again dominant after Marina Bay "blackout"

(Cover picture: XPB)

Formula 1 continues its tour of Asian stages on the calendar and, after the Singapore Grand Prix won by Carlos Sainz's Ferrari, the Circus moves to the legendary Suzuka for the usual Japanese Grand Prix. The first results from Friday indicate a newly found state of form for Max Verstappen, while his teammate Perez set some laptimes that weren't at the level of the Dutchman...

Here are the final classification of FP1 and FP2:

Ferrari isn't far from Red Bull, but Verstappen seems in control of the situation...

Our usual analysis can only start from a curiosity in terms of classification: in both sessions, in fact, although on average there was an improvement on the track close to 1.0 s/lap, the performance levels actually remained the same... Verstappen's Red Bull preceded the two Ferraris, between which we can find Lando Norris' McLaren - both in FP1 and FP2.

Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

"Today went very well, from the first lap the car behaved very well, and this allowed us to complete a good day. We saw a lot of tyre degradation, it will be difficult in the race, but I think that for now it's a good start for this weekend. I think the group behind me is very compact, we'll see..."

Max Verstappen

"It was an interesting day, in FP1 we had an incorrect balance, but we managed to understand which direction to take and things seem much better than the last weekend... I hope I can qualify well, the tyre degradation is high and it will be especially with the very hot temperatures that we expect. I think we'll be strong on both Saturday and Sunday"

Sergio Perez

Behind what might appear to be a mere curiosity lies an important clue regarding the performance trends that we will be able to see during the rest of the Japanese weekend. Net of possible exploits or a recovery by Sergio Perez - given the technical material available to him - I feel like saying that the 4 above-mentioned drivers will be the main contenders for the podium, despite the will at Mercedes to bounce back after the misadventures at the end of the last Grand Prix.

Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

The gap in more "rubbered" track conditions (i.e. in FP2) between Verstappen and Leclerc was just over 3 tenths of a second, with an interesting pattern: the aerodynamic characteristics of the RB19 allowed Max to open a gap of around half a second in the first sector alone, while in the other two (where traction and straight line speed are more rewarding parameters) Leclerc recovered part of that gap. Drawing the appropriate conclusions, we are witnessing - as often happened in 2023 - polar opposite aerodynamic choices between the two teams in question. This can be explained not so much by the desire to optimize laptime on the Suzuka circuit starting from a blank sheet of paper, but by the need to do so starting from their own technical constraints! For example, we've learned since the first GP of 2023 that the Ferrari SF-23 is a single-seater that struggles in long and fast corners (and Suzuka is full of them!)... Starting from this assumption, the Prancing Horse engineers preferred to exploit their strengths such as aerodynamic efficiency, rather than trying to mitigate their weaknesses. Only time will tell if this strategy will prove correct, but in the meantime the first two free practice sessions seem to "wink" at Leclerc and Sainz...

McLaren with a small advantage over Mercedes, Aston Martin and Williams

For a few races now we've been observing some degree of convergence in terms of performance between the Mercedes-powered teams, with laptimes and results that mainly depend on how well each of the 4 single-seaters matches the track on which they race and - no less important factor - from what kind of race execution each team is capable of carrying out.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

"I would say that race pace and tyre degradation will be the keys to the weekend, but I think it will be a more complex race than Singapore in these respects [...] There will be many competitive teams, we need to understand in the long runs with the Hard tyres how much we'll be competitive compared to the others... for example Red Bull will be very fast in qualifying and as always strong in the race. Max will probably win everything, but there will be a good battle for second position. We will fight with Ferrari"

Lando Norris

Here in Suzuka, after Lando Norris' already excellent performance in Singapore, it seems that McLaren still has a technical advantage over Mercedes, Aston Martin and Williams. This is not surprising if you consider the affinity that Suzuka has with Silverstone, another track on which the two McLarens achieved a positive second and fourth place. What rewards the MCL60 on the Japanese track is the abundance of fast corners like those of the first sector and the 130R, scenarios in which the aerodynamic platform of the Woking team's single-seater expresses itself at its best.

Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

The team that in my opinion could experience the most difficulties in the rest of the Asian weekend is Aston Martin, already today paying a significant gap from the pacesetter Verstappen. Besides today's result, it's undeniable that the English team has lost much of the brilliance that characterized the AMR23 in the first part of the season: whether this is due to a development plan concentrated in the first 10 races or whether there are other problems it's not known, but the fact remains that Alonso with his performances is saving a second half of the championship that would otherwise be disastrous...

Race pace simulation analysis: will tyre degradation force everyone into a two-stop race?

Having talked about the announced protagonists of this race weekend, let's analyze the laptimes set in the last 20 minutes of FP2, when all the teams concentrated on runs with a high fuel load that could simulate what we'll see in the race on Sunday. The results obtained, with the tyre compound used indicated in brackets, are as follows:

  • Verstappen (Proto): 1'36"449 - 1'37"458 - 1'37"474 - 1'37"388 - 1'37"871 - 1'37"986 - 1'38"213 (Average pace: 1'37"5);
  • Leclerc (M): 1'37"589 - 1'37"853 - 1'37"589 - 1'37"648 - 1'39"501 - 1'38"683 (Average pace: 1'38"1) ;
  • Norris (S): 1'37"162 - 1'37"844 - 1'38"798 - 1'37"701 - 1'38"113 - 1'38"611 - 1'38"906 (Average pace: 1'38"3);
  • Alonso (S): 1'37"461 - 1'38"078 - 1'38"369 - 1'38"558 - 1'38"906 - 1'38"686 - 1'39"398 - 1'39 "881 - 1'39"190 (Average pace: 1'38"4);
  • Perez (M): 1'37"711 - 1'37"391 - 1'37"584 - 1'37"792 - 1'38"511 - 1'38"508 - 1'39"090 - 1'39 "104 - 1'39"161 - 1'39"449 - 1'39"432 (Average pace: 1'38"5);
  • Russell (S): 1'37"536 - 1'38"188 - 1'38"488 - 1'38"855 - 1'38"852 - 1'39"103 - 1'39"367 (Average pace: 1'38"6);
  • Sainz (M): 1'37"628 - 1'37"848 - 1'37"890 - 1'38"429 - 1'39"133 - 1'39"412 - 1'39"086 - 1'39 "323 - 1'39"327 (Average pace: 1'38"7);

Max Verstappen, as we can see, was the only one to complete his long run on prototype compound tyres, brought by Pirelli to Japan to carry out some tests. To make a comparison with its direct rivals, let's consider that this compound is between the Soft and Medium tyres brought by the Italian-Chinese supplier for this Grand Prix.

Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

What emerges in all the above-mentioned long runs is the performance drop that the tyres undergo, a factor that could lead to a loss of time such as to encourage the teams to plan strategies based on two pit stops instead of the single stop. Not only that, as the race stints are unlikely to be completed using Soft compound tyres: this once again shows how harsh the Suzuka asphalt is on the cars, which on the one hand will punish some teams, on the other hand it could give us spectators a more uncertain and exciting show.

See you tomorrow for our post-qualifying analysis article, with the latter scheduled for 8.00 am CET. Until tomorrow!

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