Free practice: Ferrari aims for victory in chaotic Las Vegas?

(Cover picture: Scuderia Ferrari - X)

Welcome back to Race Analysis! It's been a long time since our last article, but starting from this GP in Las Vegas (the penultimate round of the World Championship) we're trying to pick up the story from where we left off. The last 5 races, utterly dominated by Max Verstappen and his Red Bull, served as a prelude to this GP in the state of Nevada in which, instead, the final result seems less certain than usual. How come?

Cold temperatures and track layout unfavorable to Red Bull, Ferrari can take advantage of it

Two factors, above all, already suggested on the eve of Las Vegas that this race could have been all but an easy ride for Max Verstappen:

  • The layout of the track on the streets of Las Vegas, which is actually so simple that it is even trivial, doesn't require setup compromises. The best setup for every car simply requires low downforce wings, just like in Monza! In such a context, it's more difficult for an all-round car such the RB19 to emerge;
  • To favor the American audience, the sessions were scheduled in the American evening, where in this period the temperatures are usually very low. During free practice (but we'll return to it later in this article) the various delays pushed the end of FP2 forward to 4.00 local time, something absurd...

Free practice analysis: the track is rewarding Leclerc, but will it be the same for the rest of the weekend?

But let's get to the free practice held today: what happened?

Carlos Sainz - Ferrari SF-23 / Motorsport Images

First of all, the first session lasted a good 8 minutes (!). Yes, because the start on the Las Vegas Strip Circuit was not the best: Carlos Sainz's Ferrari, passing over a drain cover in the middle of the straight, lifted it, hit it violently, and therefore forcing him to stop. Damage to his SF-23 was extensive, including Power Unit, chassis and gearbox; but the real "joke" is that, although Sainz and Ferrari are to be considered fully blameless in an accident of this kind, the need to replace the damaged elements will lead the Spaniard to incur a grid penalty, due to the exceeding of the maximum number of Power Unit components allowed for the 2023 season.

"I'm fine. After the accident I suffered a pretty strong hit to my back and neck. Unfortunately, of course the chassis, the Power Unit, the battery and even my seat were damaged after the accident, which resulted in a huge effort from all the mechanics and the team to put together a completely new car for FP2 and run during the session. In my opinion it was a heroic effort [...] I think then we showed how competitive we are this weekend, the track layout suits the SF-23 better, and we seem to fire up the tyres well on a single lap [...] At the end of FP2 the team informed me that I would get a 10 place grid penalty for something which was not my fault: this completely changed my mentality about how the weekend goes, you won't see me very happy this weekend..."

Carlos Sainz

"It's a strange feeling for us, because first of all we didn't do anything wrong, but we have to pay a huge price for this accident. And then there's the penalty when it's known that we are fighting for second place in the Championship against Mercedes, and 10 positions is a huge loss. We have to try not to think about it and do everything we can to get back to the top. We have a good pace, we have to concentrate on qualifying and then have a good race. We don't have time to discuss anything else"

Frederic Vasseur

Many hours (and track fixes) later, to be precise at 2.30 local time, the second free practice session took place, for the occasion extended by half an hour in order to make up for the previously lost time. This session, of which you can see the top 10 below, was certainly more representative if you want to understand the performance levels across the field...

Beyond the best time of the day in 1'35"265, Charles Leclerc seemed to be in great shape on the new track, able to shave off tenths of a second every time he fitted fresh sets of tyres. Most of his rivals, above all Sainz (+0.517 s) and Alonso (+0.528 s) today, managed to get close to the Monegasque only after various attempts at a flying lap, often making errors under braking and - in general - proving less sharp and effective than Charles.

Jake Grant / Motorsport Images

That said, the effect that the symbiosis between the Ferrari SF-23 and tracks requiring low downforce is having on the standings cannot be understated. We know well that, on all the tracks where there are no long corners, the single-seater of the Maranello team comes alive. If we add to this that the lack of limitations in this sense could expand the range of setups (read "ride heights") available to Ferrari engineers, it's clear why Leclerc and Sainz were deadly today.

"In the first two laps the track was very slippery, but then the grip became better. I like the track, it's fun to drive, I've always liked street circuits. We seem quite competitive for now, but it's difficult to understand exactly where we are in terms of race pace. I think that in qualifying the Red Bulls will be close as often happens, while in the race they are still too strong, Max did an excellent race simulation"

Charles Leclerc

Jake Grant / Motorsport Images

The two Red Bulls, as mentioned at the beginning, are much less fast. The competitiveness level of Perez (P4, +0.820 s) and Verstappen (P6, +0.918 s) doesn't seem as catastrophic as in Singapore, but it's certainly far from the standards to which the English-Austrian team has accustomed us this year. The RB19 is a single-seater that is fast on the straight and is equipped with an extremely aerodynamically efficient DRS, but these advantages are nullified when the set-ups don't require any compromise: today Ferrari exhibited an average advantage of +7 km/h at the speed trap. If we think about it, even in Monza we hadn't observed maximum speeds that were inconceivable for the competition, while on all the "medium load" tracks the gap has almost always widened. Different story regarding the effectiveness on race pace, but we'll get back to that immediately...

"The track was very slippery as we didn't run in FP1, but in the end it was a little better. However, we managed to complete the whole programme, which I think is the most important thing. I think the Softs on the single lap are good, but on the long run it's more difficult, so we immediately switched to Mediums. Even so, however, there are a couple of things to understand to see how we can improve the tyre degradation [...] I've driven on better circuits, but it's something that I already said yesterday, not something new that I just discovered"

Max Verstappen

“It's a difficult track, I'm very sorry for the fans for what happened, but I'm sure we'll put on a good race and a good weekend. Overall I think it's a tricky circuit, the grip level is very low, but it's continuing to improve [...] I think we've made good progress, I'm satisfied... We'll see what happens tomorrow, the Ferraris seem very fast, even when you look at the onboard videos they seem able to find something extra. But I think we'll be close to them in the race"

Sergio Perez

Long runs: who had the upper hand in the race pace simulation?

The usual long runs at the end of FP2 gave us the opportunity to take a look at the performances of the single-seaters with full-ish tank, exactly as will happen in the race on Sunday. So let's see what the laptimes say about the top teams:

Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

  • Verstappen (M): 1'39"659 - 1'39"302 - 1'38"939 - 1'39"178 - 1'38"853 - 1'39"222;
  • Perez (M): 1'39"541 - 1'39"565 - 1'40"268 - 1'40"003 - 1'41"135 - 1'40"921 - 1'41"906;
  • Leclerc (M): 1'40"979 - 1'41"123 - 1'39"683 - 1'38"928 - 1'39"918 - 1'38"912 - 1'39"402 - 1'40"000 - 1'39"545,
  • Sainz (M): 1'40"847 - 1'40"143 - 1'39"682 - 1'39"367 - 1'38"447;
  • Hamilton (M): 1'41"063 - 1'39"997 - 1'39"586 - 1'40"182 - 1'40"605 - 1'40"083 - 1'40"042 - 1'41"359 - 1'40"406 - 1'40"884;
  • Russell (M): 1'40"818 - 1'40"405 - 1'39"654 - 1'39"207 - 1'39"322 - 1'40"304;
  • Alonso (M): 1'41"464 - 1'40"485 - 1'40"150 - 1'40"998 - 1'40"331 - 1'40"295;
  • Norris (M): 1'42"158 - 1'40"941 - 1'41"410 - 1'41"612 - 1'40"681;
  • Piastri (M): 1'41"113 - 1'40"884 - 1'40"616 - 1'40"726 - 1'40"916 - 1'40"861 - 1'41"118 - 1'40"435;

The race paces in question seem to point to a fight between Verstappen and the two Ferraris, which we can limit only to Max and Charles due to the penalty that Carlos will face. As always, in addition to the mere race pace, it will be important to minimize tyre degradation: speaking of compounds, the Softs seems to have been "rejected" as an option for the race, which will therefore see a prevalence of Hards and first stints probably run on the Mediums.

Among the other front runners, we find a very constant Fernando Alonso even if not with significant laptimes, while the two Mercedes of Hamilton and Russell seem to suffer from the opposite problem: the W14s are in fact able to go below the 1'40" threshold, but they lack consistency. Finally, the McLarens of Norris and Piastri are disappointing for now, even more so if we consider that in the last events before Las Vegas the two drivers of the Woking team had often and willingly confirmed as the first pursuers of the World Champion.

Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

The Saturday program (or American Friday evening, if you prefer) includes FP3 at 5.30 am CET, with qualifying later at 9.00 am CET. Wanting to take a gamble, this time I think the pole position will be of Charles Leclerc. I am convinced that the Monegasque has on his side, despite fierce competition, the chance to take a well-deserved success here in Las Vegas, after a season that sees him behind his teammate in the standings despite globally higher performance peaks.

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