Spa: a penalty to unstoppable Verstappen gives Leclerc pole position!

The qualifying session for the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa-Francorchamps has become a classic over the last 3 years, with a script that always repeats itself: Verstappen is untouchable for anyone else, but despite setting the best laptime (1'53"159 today, in the rain) he's forced to give up the pole position due to a penalty on the starting grid.

Just as in 2022 and 2023, in fact, at Red Bull they've decided that this circuit, by its nature very "overtake-prone", is the ideal place in which to introduce the fifth internal combustion engine (ICE) on Max's car, who consequently will see the first position transform into an eleventh. Ironically, the one taking advantage of these scenarios is - once again - Ferrari!

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

If in 2022 it was Sainz's turn to inherit the pole and in 2023 it was Leclerc's, this year it's the Monegasque once again booking the first slot on the starting grid. The lap that nominally earned him the second laptime (1'53"754, +0.595 s from Verstappen) was a masterpiece that allowed him to precede much more performing cars than the SF-24 of this part of the season, such as the other Red Bull of Perez and - above all - the McLarens of Norris and Piastri.

Let's analyze what happened in this qualifying session, the final classification of which is reported below:

The rain slows down the McLarens, Leclerc is perfect in taking advantage of it

More than Leclerc or Verstappen, it was the rain that monopolised Spa this Saturday. In FP3 this morning and for the entire duration of qualifying in the afternoon, drivers never had a time window in which to fit dry tyres, so all the time spent on track today was on the Intermediates.

Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

The one who suffered the most from this situation was McLaren, which from the start of the weekend had opted for a low-downforce setup, opposite to Red Bull: being able to generate more downforce from the car bodywork, the engineers of the Woking team were convinced that a low-downforce (thus high-efficiency) setup would have allowed Norris and Piastri to gain more laptime in the first and third sector than they would have lost in the second one, an area in which the high density of wide-radius corners would certainly have favoured the more loaded wings of Verstappen's RB20.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

This idea was confirmed on track until it dried up, but when rain took away grip from the asphalt, the need emerged to combine "aerodynamic" grip (generated by the car bodywork) with "mechanical" grip (delegated to the tyres) as much as possible. Here the MCL38 found itself unprepared, and the results prove it:

  • Norris: P4 in 1'53"981, at +0.822 s from Verstappen's laptime;
  • Piastri: P5 in 1'54"027, at +0.868 s from Verstappen's laptime;

In terms of the race perspectives, however, not all is lost for the McLaren duo: the weather forecast seems to rule out the risk of further rain, so the excellent straight line speed inherent in MCL38's setup at Spa could once again make the difference. Of course, taking advantage of Verstappen's penalty, the two "papaya" drivers would have certainly wanted to start further ahead, to build a race in full control...

Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

So let's get to Ferrari, in particular to Charles Leclerc who more than once risked being eliminated during qualifying, but who in the end - when it counts - managed to lower his best Q2 laptime just enough to take pole. For the Monegasque, the idea is similar to what has been said about McLaren regarding the setup of his SF-24, therefore with better straight line characteristics compared to the fast corners in the middle sector: despite this, I expect that the high top speed may not be enough to face more performing cars in the dry, in tomorrow's race.

Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

The difference in feeling compared to Sainz, however, is a bit of an outlier looking at today's final result: the Spaniard's P7 (in 1'54"477, at +1.318 s from the best laptime of the day) is the result of a sudden performance drop limited to Q3 only, after a session always spent close to - or even ahead of - his teammate... Obviously, having missed the chance of being in the very front rows makes Carlos' race extremely uphill, and it's not difficult to imagine that his team may ask him to collaborate strategically with Charles to ensure him the best possible result!

Mercedes struggling with the update package: back to the old floor!

One of the teams in the best shape since the last two/three races, namely Mercedes, is risking finding itself in a technical situation similar to what happened to Ferrari following the introduction of thier upgrade package in Barcelona.

In fact, net of Hamilton's P3 (at +0.676 s) and Russell's P6 (at +1.025 s), at Spa we saw the two W15s struggling in termis of porpoising, both on the long straights and in the fast corners like Pouhon and Stavelot.

Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Even at Mercedes, not coincidentally, the return of the infamous porpoising coincided with the introduction of a new floor, which evidently increased the peak downforce figure, unfotunately resulting in a greater instability of the entire aerodynamic platform. Already during Friday's free practices both drivers loudly requested setup changes aimed at raising the car off the ground to mitigate the bouncing: but, as we know, greater ride heights are detrimental to ground effect, which translates into a loss of downforce during the circuit.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

So, already this morning, the team from Brackley decided to install the old floor on both of its cars, with which Lewis and George had raced until the last Hungarian GP: a difficult choice, with potentially further consequences, given that the entire development plan (based on this floor brought to Spa) will most likely have to be revised... In short, as mentioned, a situation completely similar to the one experienced by Ferrari.

Missed opportunity for Albon and Gasly, out of Q3 with Stroll

Whereas Fernando Alonso (in P8) and Esteban Ocon (in P9) are on the edge of the top ten, the same cannot be said for two of the protagonists of these qualifying: we're talking about Alexander Albon (in P11, which becomes P10 only because of the penalty to Verstappen already mentioned several times) and Pierre Gasly (in P12).

Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

Above all, the Williams driver was the author of an almost perfect qualifying, and the elimination in Q2 - by just 0.003 s - by Sergio Perez who then took second place overall is a bit of a shame for the Thai. It's known that Williams is (historically now) a rocketship down the straights, so having completed a competitive qualifying even in wet track conditions is a further indication of how well at Grove they've optimized the technical package available today.

Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

As for Ocon and Gasly, however, after an excellent performance at the start of qualifying, not having made it to Q3 with both cars must have been a great disappointment for Alpine, which in Spa is finding favourable conditions to fuel their ambition of scoring points, especially with a view to challenging Haas for seventh place in the Constructors' Championship.

Among the others eliminated in Q2 are Daniel Ricciardo (in P13), Valtteri Bottas (in P14) and Lance Stroll (in P15), with the latter in great difficulty after the crash at Eau Rouge that had interrupted FP3 with a red flag, in the morning. Eliminated in Q1, however, are both Haas of Hulkenberg (in P16) and Magnussen (in P17), with a pitwall guilty of not having optimized their drivers' run plans. Under normal circumstances, it will be difficult for both to get back into the points zone...

The grid is then closed by Sargeant, Zhou and Tsunoda, who like Verstappen will be penalised for having replaced several components of his Power Unit beyond the in-season limit allowed by the Sporting Regulations.

Race scenarios: is a comeback possible for Verstappen from P11?

As anticipated, there's a good chance that the race will be held on a dry track: in normal conditions, it's plausible that the 44 laps of the Belgian track will be covered with a two-stop strategy, which will see a large prevalence of the use of Hard and Medium tyres. What is historically a one-stop race, in fact, sees the aspect of tyre degradation as key compared to previous years, due to the resurfacing of a large part of the circuit.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

The unfolding of the race, assuming a victory by Leclerc as unlikely, will see as main themes the comebacks that the two McLarens and - above all - Verstappen will be called upon to make, with the Dutchman who has shown he has the best pace on a clear track, but who - considering his high-downforce setup - could struggle to overtake rivals with better top speeds. But, on the other hand, having more loaded wings will allow him to stress his tyres less: could this open the door to a one-stop strategy?

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