British apotheosis at Silverstone: Russell on pole ahead of Hamilton and Norris!

(Cover picture: Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team)

The British Grand Prix qualifying sees pole position for George Russell, who - galvanized by last Sunday's victory in Austria, precedes teammate Hamilton in a Mercedes one-two which fuels hopes of a race win for the English-German team.

The second row features the two rivals of this central portion of the World Championship, namely Lando Norris and Max Verstappen... Both, despite having the potential to obtain pole position, find themselves in P3 and P4 for different reasons: Lando made a mistake in his second and final attempt in Q3, while Max had to deal with the lack of downforce following his off-track in the gravel trap, which occurred in Q1 when it wasn't yet clear whether it would be better to use Soft tyres or Intermediate ones.

This Saturday's twists mainly concern the debacles of Charles Leclerc and Sergio Perez, who will be condemned to an uphill race in which they will have to start from P11 and P19 respectively. Let's talk about this and much more in our analysis, immediately after providing you the final classification of this qualifying session:

Mercedes is back: Russell once again ahead of everyone!

The fact that Toto Wolff's team form is at its highest level since two/three years is nothing new, but the team result on this Saturday at Silverstone (which for Mercedes, as well as for almost all the teams in Formula 1, is the home Grand Prix) confirms that the English-German engineers have finally managed to overcome the issues that gave them headaches throughout 2022, 2023 and the very first part of this 2024.

Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

In the first races of this year we commented on the fluctuating results of the W15 as a direct consequence of the great aerodynamic instability of this car, which seemed to be so strong in low temperature conditions, yet unmanageable by Hamilton and Russell with only a few degrees more on the track surface. Starting from these assumptions, today's front row might seem like a confirmation of the analysis performed, but we must pay attention to the context in which Toto Wolff's car is operating: as for now, the instability we were talking about seems definitively resolved, even if the word "definitively", looking closely at Ferrari's recent results - which we'll return to later - cannot be taken for granted.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

But regardless of what will be the future developments of the W15, the present situation tells us that Lewis and George have a stable aerodynamic platform at their disposal in both fast and slow corners, while it isn't a sitting duck on the straights (unlike in 2022, for example) and is no longer affected by the variations in environmental conditions. The turning point occurred with the updates introduced in the Monaco Grand Prix, although due to the particular shape of the circuit in the Principality, the effects of the new parts became clear starting from the following GP, in Canada.

Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

The macro-component most affected by these upgrades was undoubtedly the front wing, which scrapped the concept (very borderline with reguards to the Technical Regulations) of the very thin upper flap in the central section: a solution that in the wind tunnel and in CFD simulations gave advantages that weren't replicated on track, whereas a more "traditional" spec literally gave Mercedes wings. However, I personally don't believe that a new front wing was enough to turn the corner for Mercedes in 2024... Let's put it this way: without any picture of the W15's underfloor, we don't know what changes might have been made in that crucial area!

Both the World Championship rivals waste an opportunity in critical track conditions

The one who has some regrets at the end of qualifying at Silverstone is certainly Lando Norris, who after performing well during free practice, had to settle for third place (+0.211 s) which could easily have been a pole position. The Englishman, however, paid a heavy price for not completing the lap in the second and final attempt in Q3, due to a mistake which - in retrospect - prevented him from taking a grid slot with some safe distance from his rival Max Verstappen.

Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

Speaking of Verstappen, the World Champion is - on the other hand - the one who has the least to complain about what he achieved in qualifying, because his fourth position (+0.384 s) could have been much worse if he had definitively lost control at Copse during Q1. His off-track on the gravel at that time, even if dictated by changing conditions of a track that was tricky for everyone, caused damage to his car's floor which imposed a low "ceiling" on its performance. Christian Horner stated that the above-mentioned damage led to a laptime loss of almost 0.3 s/lap, a performance delta that would certainly have put Max back in the fight for pole position.

Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

As mentioned, if on the one hand things could have gone better, on the other a disaster was avoided: if Verstappen had ended his Q1 on the wall, keeping him company at the rear of the starting grid would have been Sergio Perez, who only a few minutes earlier beached his car the escape route (of Copse), after a loss of grip at high speed. It's going to be an uphill race for the Mexican, with the 19th starting position which will probably encourage the Milton Keynes team to overturn the setup of car number 11 and install as many fresh components of the Power Unit as possible, given that Pierre Gasly (who will start last) will serve a 50-place penalty on the grid: in short, for Perez the opportunity is to stock up on fresh components without having any actual penalties in return.

A nightmare Saturday for Ferrari, even behind Hulkenberg!

The seventh position of Carlos Sainz and the eleventh of Charles Leclerc - therefore eliminated in Q2 - make Ferrari the disappointment of this Saturday in England. Regarding the specific situation during this qualifying session, we may or may not speak of bad luck in some circumstances, but the latter are the result of a much broader picture, which after hitting rock bottom at Silverstone is worth analyzing...

Immediately after the Canadian GP, ​​with the unsuccessful result for the two drivers who returned to Europe without even a single point on the scoresheet, the real issues began in the Spanish Grand Prix, in Barcelona. On that occasion, the engineers of the Prancing Horse team introduced an upgrade package following the (main) one in Imola, in the hope of further increasing the aerodynamic downforce of the SF-24.

Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

This hope was fulfilled, as there was actually an increase in peak performance in slow corners: but, on the other hand, the same resulted in the onset of huge instabilities, with the return of the much hated (by engineers and drivers) porpoising. This phenomenon literally destroyed SF-24's performance in the fast corners, where the - understandable - lack of confidence of Leclerc and Sainz and the objective technical difficulty canceled out the clear advantage that this package of updates should have delivered.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

So we arrive here at Silverstone, where Ferrari (wisely) decided to carry out a proper comparison between the spec of SF-24 who raced at Imola and that of Barcelona, ​​respectively in the hands of Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc. The latter immediately confirmed the greater difficulty in keeping the car on the road, which also appeared evident when looking at the onboards and analyzing the telemetries... With almost equal absolute performance, the Prancing Horse engineers themselves preferred - in view of the rest of the weekend - to revert both cars back to the old specification, believing that porpoising in the race would have introduced a new issue, in the form of tyre degradation - in addition to the critical issues just described.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

With a "new" car, or rather one not yet tested in free practice at Silverstone, Leclerc understandably struggled in qualifying: if we add to this the phases in which the weather seemed confusing on a tyre standpoint, the reason for this sensational elimination in Q2 for the Monegasque driver becomes pretty clear. Less understandable, in all honesty, why Ferrari fared even worse than Haas: Hulkenberg's sixth position is thanks both to the German driver and to the latest - deep - round of modifications on the VF-24, but thinking that these two factors are enough to overperform the single-seater which until a few races ago was the second force in the World Championship is way too much: it's therefore possible that some procedural errors were also made in Maranello in the execution of this qualifying, but tomorrow's race will certainly give us more answers.

Redemption for Aston Martin and Williams, but they'll have to prove themselves in the race

In the midfield it should be absolutely pointed out the grow of Aston Martin (which is based in Silverstone, right in front of this circuit) and Williams: these are the two teams that - together with Visa CashApp RB - we'd criticized in the last few races, given the frequent eliminations in Q1 which certified an understandable technical situation for the team of Albon and Sargeant, less so for that of Alonso and Stroll.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

The team owned by Lawrence Stroll, after the introduction of some updates - and taking advantage of the "home-field effect" that knowing the Silverstone track can certainly give them - placed both cars in Q3, with Stroll in P8 (+0.766 s) and Alonso in P10 (+1.098 s). Between the two, what stands in the way is the excellent performance of Albon's Williams, with the English-Thai at +0.821 s from George Russell's pole position...

Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

Visa CashApp RB, Kick Sauber and Alpine performed much worse: excluding the aforementioned qualifiying from Perez, these are the teams that will close the starting grid tomorrow: among the three the only surprise is the French team, not so much if you consider the beginning of their World Championship, as for the latest progress made... On the one hand Gasly was set to serve a grid penalty, but for Ocon it was a qualifying session literally thrown away; in view of the race it will be difficult to perform a comeback, given the struggles of Alpine on the Power Unit (hence top speed) side!

Rain expected in the race, will it be a mayhem?

Never before has it been as difficult as this weekend to make predictions about what could happen in the race, given that the rain indicated as certain by the most recent weather forecasts will most likely overturn the outcome and the performance levels, thus giving us a race as uncertain as indecipherable. After the start (at 4.00 pm CET), there will be 52 laps to complete: among unexpected strategies, Safety Cars, crashes and retirements we can expect anything, but to find out we just need to sit and enjoy the race... See you tomorrow!

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