Ex-Aequo in Montreal: Russell on pole ahead of Verstappen, with both Ferraris out in Q2!

Without any doubt we can define the qualifying in Montreal as the most uncertain of 2024, despite weather conditions that on several occasions threatened rain, but it never arrived. Pole position therefore goes to George Russell, almost two years after the first (and until yesterday only) start in first position in Formula 1, in the 2022 Hungarian GP.

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The surprising aspect is that the second classified, the World Champion Max Verstappen, sets a laptime identical to the thousandth (1'12"000) compared to that of the Englishman from Mercedes, but having completed the lap after the him, as stated by the regulation will have to start in second position. Not a disaster for Max, given that - like several times recently - he didn't have a clear advantage over the competition, so he can be satisfied with the outcome of this qualifying session.

Having taken a look at the final classification for the qualifying of the Canadian Grand Prix, let's start - as always - with our analysis!

The cold track brings back to life Mercedes and Aston Martin, so far very close to McLaren

The first consideration that we can bring home by analyzing what happened on the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is that low temperatures helped two teams a lot: Mercedes and Aston Martin.

In fact, since the beginning of the season, we'd reported how - especially for the Engliash-German team - temperature was a determining factor in terms of performance; in particular, it had already become clear in China that Hamilton and Russell could have a much more balanced W15 at their disposal in cold track conditions, at least compared to their rivals. The reason for this performance swing, compared to more "canonical" weather conditions, most likely lies in Mercedes' suspension system, capable of extracting enough grip from the tyres straight away.

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The negative aspect of this feature lies in the fact that, when temperatures are higher, the excessive grip extracted causes the tyres to overheat, with consequent sliding: hence the fluctuating performances of the Brackley team, which despite not having a "Title contender" single-seater, yesterday found a track in ideal conditions to make the most of its characteristics. It rarely happens, but when it does...

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As for Hamilton, I feel like saying that the seventh position from which he will start the race is a rather lying result, result of a mistake at the hairpin of Turn 10 which determined the entire gap (+0.280 s) from teammate Russell. In short, although it wasn't a huge gap, the aspect that penalized Lewis was the number of cars capable of placing themselves between him and pole position: those of Russell, Verstappen, Norris, Piastri, Ricciardo and Alonso.

Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Among the drivers mentioned, an honorable mention goes to Daniel Ricciardo, whose performance in 2024 is a rollercoaster one, to say the least: bad performances are being balanced by the Miami GP and - at least so far - this Canadian weekend. It's difficult to find a trend in what was shown by the Australian, even less so if you consider that Miami and Montreal are two very different tracks in terms of layout, with a further (abysmal) difference represented by the weather conditions encountered.

Patrick Vinet / Motorsport Images

As for the other two teams encountered in the top ten, whereas what was said for Mercedes applies - to a slightly reduced extent - to Aston Martin, at McLaren there is a slightly broader analysis to be made...

In hindsight, we can consider the strategy that the Woking team adopted in the final qualifying heat to be incorrect, putting Norris and Piastri on track before all the others and with a higher fuel load, such as to allow them to perform two flying laps instead of just one. Since the track conditions didn't improve in the last few minutes, it's easy to think that with slightly lighter MCL38s, in a single flying lap Lando (P3, at +0.032 s) and Oscar (P4, at +0.103 s) could have even conquered the entire front row.

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In any case, from a race perspective the two papaya cars will be a danger for everyone, especially for Verstappen who starts in front of them, but who, judging from the race pace simulated during free practice, could be easy prey to both during the 70 scheduled laps.

Ferrari struggling once again with tyres, Leclerc and Sainz are only on sixth row!

The biggest disappointment on Saturday in Montreal was represented - without any doubt - by the starting positions of the two Ferraris: Charles Leclerc's P11 and Carlos Sainz's P12 mark the worst result for the Scuderia since 2021. Let's therefore try to understand why the SF-24 transformed itself, over just two weeks, from the fastest car in Monaco to a seemingly midfield single-seater.

Patrick Vinet / Motorsport Images

First of all, to frame the performance of the two Ferrari drivers it must be said that already from free practice (especially FP3 on Saturday) neither Leclerc nor Sainz had been able to obtain significant laptimes, tracing - in retrospect - the positions they would then have obtained in qualifying. The biggest obstacle for both was represented by the first sector of the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve... But don't be fooled: the critical aspect shouldn't be seeked in the shape of the corners that make up this sector, but rather in the fact that it's the first portion of the track to be tackled after the out lap. In this circumstance, as we learned at the beginning of the season (and forgot in the last two "hot" events in Imola and Monaco), the SF-24 struggles to bring the tyres up to temperature and generate enough grip.

Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

A characteristic at odds with what has been explained regarding Mercedes, which over the long distance may be less penalizing but which still exposes them to results that are difficult to digest, like the one obtained yesterday. In explaining the Prancing Horse debacle, however, it's also necessary to introduce a strategic element: the use of used Soft tyres in the second and final run of Q2, i.e. the one in which the two Ferrari drivers failed to progress into Q3.

Apparently, the reason for this strategic choice lies in the fact that, had they used a set of fresh Soft tyres, entering the top 10 they would then have had zero availability of further new Soft tyres; however, according to Sporting Regulations, it must be remembered that between the sets of Softs available to each driver, one of them is necessarily dedicated to Q3, so even if it's among those still to be used, everybody are forced to make choices like the one seen yesterday.

Thinking ahead of the race, if there were to be rain or - however - very low temperatures once again, there's a big possibility that the initial laps of all the stints from Leclerc and Sainz could be affected by the same problem, which risks compromising a comeback which is essential, in order to strenghten the positive trend following the beautiful victory in Monaco.

Perez still out in Q1, his performances are starting to become worrying...

Another negative performance in the Canadian afternoon comes with the elimination of Sergio Perez in Q1, which in turn comes after another elimination (also in Q1) in the last Monaco GP. If we add that in the previous qualifying, in Imola, Checo was eliminated in Q2, we reach a total of three consecutive events in which the Mexican is outside the top ten...

Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

It seems enough to me to glimpse a trend dangerously similar to that exhibited in 2023, where following some very competitive races at the beginning of the season - to the point of causing some media to forecast a potential battle between him and Verstappen for the World Championship - the performance of the driver from Guadalajara then clearly deteriorated, particularly in qualifying.

Last year we explained these results with a balance of the RB19 that had moved away from Checo's preferences, therefore going in a direction more congenial to Verstappen's driving skills. As for 2024, it cannot be ruled out that a similar scenario is repeating itself; the difference compared to 2023 is that today Red Bull no longer enjoys such a large competitive advantage, so in Milton Keynes the contribution of both drivers in the Constructors' Championship is fundamental: without this prerequisite, it's easy to imagine that the World Title could take the direction of Maranello or Woking.

Regarding Perez's contract renewal for 2025 and 2026, which took place on the eve of this Canadian GP, ​​I don't want to express myself in too negative terms: let's just say that the next few months will be crucial in understanding whether Red Bull really wants to entrust its car to Checo, or if - as has happened many times in the past - they'll promote another of his drivers, in defiance of the contract just signed...

A race open to any scenario, watch out for the rain!

As anticipated, the race will feature a distance of 70 laps, starting from 8.00 pm CET.

The weather is still unknown at the moment, but - as in the rest of the weekend - there are some possibilities of rain. This eventuality could in fact nullify any pre-race analysis, giving us an almost certainly chaotic race. If this doesn't happen, I'm quite skeptical about George Russell's chances of winning, while I speculate that McLaren could be the favorite for first (and second) position. As mentioned, the most important hurdle for Norris and Piastri won't be Russell but Verstappen, who starting from second position will do everything to overtake the Mercedes driver right from the start.

Assuming once again a dry race, the strategies can vary between options with one or two pitstops, where the single pitstop is more congenial to those who, like Ferrari, will have to recover from starting positions that hardly offer the possibility of running in clean air. But we will only discover this, together with many other dynamics, in the evening. Enjoy the race!

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