Close qualifying in Barcelona: Norris steals pole from Verstappen!

Lando Norris and McLaren are officially a serious threat. The qualifying of the Spanish Grand Prix, in Barcelona, ​​marks a further step in the technical growth that the Woking team has shown since the Miami weekend. From that moment on, the English driver has only dropped off the podium once, taking an (excellent) fourth place in Monaco; today he delivered a further demonstration of his state of form, because the first position from which he will start tomorrow is something that was still missing in his 2024.

But let's take a look at the final classification of this Saturday on Spanish soil, and let's start with our analysis!

Verstappen beaten, but between himself and the Ferraris there are also the two Mercedes!

Immediately behind the poleman we find Verstappen, who whereas in Montreal he had lost the pole position despite setting the same laptime compared to George Russell, here in Barcelona he once again has to complain, being only 20 thousandths behind the best laptime of day.

Both Lando and Max made an abysmal difference compared to their teammates, but in Piastri's case there are mitigating factors (the Australian didn't set a valid laptime in Q3). At Red Bull, on the other hand, Checo Perez has little excuses for the gap of 0.658 s from the leading driver of their team. The current situation in Formula 1 has seen the competition get very close to the Milton Keynes team, and as Verstappen himself said, it's as if all the teams are slowly reaching a development ceiling in relation to the Technical Regulations in force: proof of that are the gaps between the fastest and slowest cars, extremely closer than in the past... If on the one hand this is desirable for the show on the track, on the other hand each team has to make sure their pair of drivers is capable of getting the most out of their single-seater!

Andrew Ferraro / Motorsport Images

Therefore, coming back to the situation at Red Bull, Max Verstappen has been the absolute benchmark for two years now (both of his team and, probably, of Formula 1); the problem for Horner and his team is that, as long as Perez continues to show these embarassing performances, they won't be able to understand 100% how much it's Verstappen who is keeping them on top, or how much it's Checo himself who is "underperforming". Wanting to draw a parallel with MotoGP, we saw a similar dynamic at Honda, where Marc Marquez - for years - made up for a vehicle that wasn't up to his talent: when he changed team, the level of the motorbike he had left clearly emerged!

In Formula 1 the performance comparison of two teammates follows roughly the same rules, which is why - to avoid any misunderstanding - it's always necessary to have a pair of drivers who constantly demonstrate their contribution to the cause.

Andrew Ferraro / Motorsport Images

Returning to this qualifying session, the second and third rows of the starting grid will be occupied by the Mercedes and Ferrari line-ups respectively, with:

  • Hamilton in P3, with a gap of +0.318 s;
  • Russell in P4, with a gap of +0.320 s;
  • Leclerc in P5, with a gap of +0.348 s;
  • Sainz in P6, with a gap of +0.353 s;

Minimal gaps, which despite considering the 3 tenths compared to Norris and Verstappen up front, don't exclude the four above-mentioned driver from the fight for victory in tomorrow's race: in fact, in free practice we saw that the long run pace of Ferrari and Mercedes is absolutely on par, if not superior, to that of Red Bull; from this perspective, McLaren still seems to be one step ahead, but - at the risk of repeating ourselves - no sidereal gaps have been observed between any of the four teams mentioned so far.

Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

It's very easy to understand how, with the same (or almost equal) performance, the discriminating factor could be the starting position, which at the moment doesn't favour the two Ferraris and Oscar Piastri's McLaren. The Australian, without the laptime cancellation following his first attempt in Q3 and without the error that saw him into the gravel in the second attempt, could have led the group of four cars discussed previously, perhaps putting his own team in conditions of a strategic 2 vs 1 against Verstappen's Red Bull.

Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

The result achieved by the two Mercedes is a confirmation of the improvements that are emerging from the last race weekends, in which a series of targeted updates have brought the Brackley team back to the positions they're most used to. The Technical Director James Allison himself commented on these updates with a "How could we have been so stupid until now?", regarding the development direction which now seems to yield the hoped-for laptime gains. The key (easy to say, less to do) was to make the W15 more balanced between the front axle and the rear one, even - and most importantly - when environmental conditions cause a shift of the ideal balance in the direction of understeer (when temperatures drop) or oversteer, in the opposite scenario.

Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

How to judge the performance of the two Ferraris? Although the triumph in Monaco had given an enormous boost to the environment of the Maranello team, the disaster on Canadian soil and the result on this qualifying session seem to be bringing the ambitions of Leclerc and Sainz back on earth. In reality, it must be said, between Montreal and Barcelona we absolutely cannot talk about two flops in all respects, because today the gap paid to the pole laptime is in line with what we've seen during the season. The problem, if anything, is that whereas at the beginning of the championship there was no competitor capable of interposing between Red Bull and Ferrari itself, today McLaren and Mercedes can do so... And when both of these two teams optimize their weekend execution, the result seems more disastrous than it really is for the Italian team.

Andrew Ferraro / Motorsport Images

Today, for example, a factor that slightly penalized Leclerc and Sainz was the drop in temperatures of around 5°C between FP3 and the qualifying sessions themselves: the shift in the optimal setup from rear to front meant that the rear wing brought to Barcelona (as part of an upgrade package that promises a performance gain of 0.1 s/lap) and bolted on the two SF-24s was inappropriate to the demands of the track, whereas until a few hours earlier it had allowed Sainz to close free practices with the best overall laptime!

Masterpiece for Alpine, with both cars in Q3 for the first time this year!

The most important surprise in terms of performance comes from the two Alpines, with Gasly in P7 at just +0.474 s and Ocon in P9, with a gap of +0.742 s from poleman Norris. In reality, by virtue of the three-place starting grid penalty suffered by Sergio Perez in the last Canadian GP, ​​Esteban will complete the fourth row together with his teammate: in short, this is a great opportunity to bring the two Alpine A524s home in the points paying positions, considering that Haas is only 2 points ahead in the Constructors' World Championship.

This excellent result of the French team follows the announcement of the hiring of Flavio Briatore as "Executive Advisor": a job title that isn't very clear as to the power that the Cuneo native will have in making choices within the team, but that by listening to the first words from Flavio himself suggest a role similar to that of Team Principal, currently in the hands of Bruno Famin. For Briatore it's a return, to the same team that he had helped to grow (and to win) first under the Benetton name, and then under the name - and the capital - of Renault.

Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

It's important to underline, as further proof of what has been said regarding the close gaps between the 20 cars on the grid, that Pierre Gasly's gap from Lando Norris is less than half a second, something unthinkable even just a few races ago: at this rate, it's possible to expect other big leaps forward by teams that are more used to the less "noble" positions in the field...

Visa CashApp RB and Williams behind everyone else, with little hope for the race!

The last 4 positions are the prerogative of the two Visa CashApp RBs of Tsunoda and Ricciardo, and the two Williams of Albon and Sargeant. Also in this case we're not talking about huge gaps, but about cars which from a race perspective could see their distance from the lead widening compared to more "equipped" rivals in terms of tyre management.

Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

The only two hopes for these teams will be the possibility of rain, which in truth is less likely as the weather forecasts update, and the possibility of a race with a chaotic unfolding, perhaps with neutralizations via Safety Car...

From a strategic point of view, in linear race conditions we expect a prevalence of drivers who will opt for a two-pitstop strategy, preferring the Medium tyres to the less durable Softs, or the slower Hards. Even a three-stop strategy cannot be ruled out a priori, especially for those teams like Ferrari who want to get rid of traffic as soon as possible, also thanks to the fresh set of Soft tyres saved during qualifying.

Come what may, the 66 laps of the race in Barcelona will give us important indications on the performance levels in view of the continuation of this World Championship, as the Circuit de Catalunya is so complete in terms of layout. So see you tomorrow, at 3.00 pm CET, for the start of the Spanish Grand Prix... Enjoy the race!

Categories

Reading time: minutes
Back to blog