Spectacular qualifying in Melbourne! Verstappen gives his all and gets pole… Huge surprise from Mercedes!

When bad luck doesn't get in the way in the form of mechanical issues, Max Verstappen doesn't disappoint and grabs pole position at the Australian Grand Prix. Behind him, surprisingly from what we saw up until yesterday's free practice, there are the two Mercedes of Russell 2nd and Hamilton 3rd, respectively 2 and 4 tenths behind the best laptime of the driver from Hasselt. But before starting our usual qualifying analysis, have a look at the complete standings:

The Red Bull RB19 has a weakness: low temperatures!

The first two Grands Prix had shown how the Milton Keynes team's car lacked real weaknesses, excelling in all weather conditions (the heat of Bahrain or the night in Jeddah) and with different setups (low or medium downforce configurations).

 

Jake Grant / Motorsport Images

The news from Saturday in Melbourne, therefore, is that when the temperature drops even more (15°C in qualifying) and humidity rises, the behavior of the RB19 becomes less predictable, especially regarding the stability under braking. This was extremely evident above all with Sergio Perez, who after running 5 times (!) off the track in FP3, experienced a qualifying to forget in which on his first flying lap he got stuck in the gravel of turn 3, ending a session that would condemn him starting in last position tomorrow.

"We had a bit of a technical issue from FP3 and we thought we fixed that, but we obviously didn't. It was very difficult to do anything out there, just braking. I became a passenger as soon as I touched the brake. I just hope that we are able to fix it as a team tomorrow and be able to race and minimize the damage"
Sergio Perez

The Mexican driver spoke of technical problems (engine braking, as it’s rumored), but honestly it's more correct to talk about a car having difficulties - for once - with the setup in cold and wet conditions. Verstappen himself had to approach the most demanding braking points of the Albert Park circuit, those of turn 1 and turn 3, with relative caution in his qualifying laps... Only his great talent at the wheel allowed him to set the fastest laptime, as he’s not afraid to tell.

“The last attempt was very good, even if it was difficult for the whole weekend to get the tyres in the right temperature window that would allow us to push straight away. There was a lack of grip, probably due to the nature of the new asphalt. We realized this right from free practice and doing two preparation laps here is always a gamble. Unfortunately it doesn't depend much on us, but it's the same for everyone and in Q3 everything worked well. I'm very happy with my lap and with being in Pole Position"
Max Verstappen

From a setup standpoint, the higher temperatures expected tomorrow in the race can certainly meet the two Red Bull drivers.

Mercedes gets the best out of the W14 at the last attempt

The team that obtained the most consistent performance in Melbourne is certainly Mercedes, which will count on Russell starting in 2nd and Hamilton in 3rd in tomorrow's race (race starts at 7.00 am CET). After having spent a Friday clearly behind the Aston Martin of Fernando Alonso and on a par with the two Ferraris of Leclerc and Sainz, in Q3 the two "Black Arrows" literally came back to life: judging by the onboards of the two English drivers, it seems that there was another car on the track compared to what we have seen so far in 2023…

“I'd be lying if I said this is no surprise, because we're not sure where these performances came from. We have made progress with the car since Bahrain, and the performance has gradually improved. We didn't bring any upgrades to the car, we just made the most of the setup. The pace we showed in qualifying, especially in Q3, was not the same as we saw in the rest of the weekend. I felt alive and happy to see how we classified, now I can't wait for tomorrow"
George Russell

“This is a totally unexpected result. I'm really proud of the team, George has done a fantastic job and being on the front and second rows is a dream for us. We are working so hard to get back in front and to be so close to Red Bull is incredible. We hope to give them some trouble in the race”
Lewis Hamilton

For the race, I don't have high expectations from the Mercedes duo, simply because under normal conditions their W14 will have little to offer them in a possible duel with Verstappen: the top speed of the Red Bull RB19 is simply too high for Mercedes, so Max could defend his position easily even in the event of a non-optimal race pace (a hypothesis which seems unlikely to me…).

 

Lionel Ng / Motorsport Images

Ferrari and Aston Martin the two teams that capitalized the least!

Both on the eve of the weekend and after Friday's free practice, there was huge optimism in the paddock for a possible pole position for Fernando Alonso. The fourth place achieved by the Spanish driver, with such premises, seems a little disappointing for everyone, but surprisingly not for him, well aware that the points are rewarded on Sunday.

 

Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

"I feel good. Obviously, yes, in a tenth or two there were a lot of cars and we were at the top of that group in Q1 and Q2 - I think I was P2. And then in Q3, we missed the front row of the grid by a couple of hundredths of a second. Mercedes did a great job in Q3, so it's probably still the best qualifying of the three for us. We were 0.6s off pole in Bahrain, 0.5s in Jeddah and 0.4s here, so I think we have to be happy and see what we can do tomorrow. I am confident, I am optimistic for tomorrow. I think our strength is the race pace, so let's use it!”
Fernando Alonso

Fernando is right, the strength of his Aston Martin AMR23 is the race pace: consistency, combined with the car's spectacular traction and downforce qualities will make him a serious contender for the podium once again, but to get there he will have to invent something in terms of overtaking or strategies, as the Mercedes are still a little faster on the straights - which is not negligible in close fights.

 

Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

The qualifying session from Ferrari follows the disappointing trend of the first two races, even if by avoiding a couple of procedural errors a few more positions could have been gained, compared to Sainz's fifth and Leclerc's seventh.

“We were afraid the rain would come, so we decided to push right away. Unfortunately we missed too much to be in front, but we need to see with the team what happened with Carlos in the first sector in Q3. It was clear that I had to push on that lap, but Carlos was ahead of me in the first sector and was preparing his tyres. We need to improve on this… I think I have a car that suits the race more than the qualifying, but it doesn't justify our 7th place. We had more, and we had to do a better job. Am I surprised by the Mercedes? Honestly I never worried about them, I always stayed focused on ourselves”
Charles Leclerc

For Ferrari, a Sunday similar to that of Mercedes is expected, i.e. not too far from the positions to which it can aspire. Even in this case, however, it should be emphasized that in particular conditions any discussion made before the race itself can be overturned. It's just a pity that the situation in Maranello leaves little hope, after all…

The midfield qualifying: Alex Albon's masterclass in P8!

Away from the spotlights of the top positions, the best driver of the day was in my opinion Alexander Albon. Bringing a Williams to eighth position without "gifts" from others and only thanks to his own strength is a true demonstration of speed and consistency by the Thai driver, who also in 2022 had often overperformed in his FW44...

 

Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

It is true that the comparison at Williams sees him against Logan Sargeant, who despite being a solid driver up to now, is still a rookie, but to reach that eighth position Alex had to manage a car with a rather low-downforce aerodynamic setup - both fast on the straights as damn hard to predict (and control) in the corners. Perhaps his performance should make people from Red Bull think again, who too quickly brought him to the factory team and then put him down after just over a year: Albon was resilient in rebuilding his career, and now he is enjoying the right praise for his hard work.

What to expect tomorrow in the race?

An easy victory by Verstappen, period.

Seriously, it is now known that under normal circumstances (no rain, unlucky Safety Car timings or mechanical issues), Max is set to dominate the race... However, behind him nothing is written: I expect Fernando Alonso in second position, and a Mercedes in third; but Formula 1, especially in this 2023, lives on a very fine balance, so the performance levels could easily be overturned under changing race conditions!

I remind you that if you want to have all the telemetry data of each session at your disposal, from FP1 to the race, you can subscribe to the Rastro RaceAnalysis page on BuyMeACoffee for a competitive price, page which I manage together with my colleague Rastro. It doesn't cost you much, but it can give you added value in analyzing the Grands Prix before and after they are held. In any case, see you next time!

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