Qualifying at Zandvoort: pole position for Verstappen, but the driver of the day is Albon!

Following the expectations, Max Verstappen takes his third pole position in a row at Zandvoort: he does it with a margin of just over half a second over Lando Norris, who after progressing into Q3 by a whisker (due to a strategic gamble) confirms himself as the closest driver to the World Champion in this Dutch event.

Dom Romney / Motorsport Images

Here's the final classification of the qualifying session at Zandvoort:

Wet conditions in Q1 and Q2, but the mistakes happened in Q3!

The qualifying session saw the first two manches held in the wet due to the rain that fell until a few minutes before the green light. Only at the beginning of Q3 it become clear that the track conditions were such as to allow the use of dry tyres (obviously of the Soft compound): even the few drivers who came out of the pits on Intermediates had to change their minds, coming back into the pitlane to switch to dry tyres.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Despite the track evolution described, it's curious how the only two interruptions occurred in Q3, by Logan Sargeant (Williams) and Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) respectively. Two accidents with different dynamics, but which had the common effect of causing two red flags.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Let's start with the American driver's crash: first of all, it must be said that Logan was in Q3 for the first time in his career, which is why it's easy to imagine that he tried to give something more in order to get a result usually out of his reach. In truth, however, when the American reached turn 7, his only "fault" was that of choosing a slightly wide trajectory. A line which in 100% dry conditions wouldn't lead to a loss of grip, but which on the drying asphalt meant placing the left rear tyre on a patch that was still wet. The consequence of this was a spin that sent Logan - even rather violently - into the barriers: at the end of the day, "only" a tenth place for him.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Instead, Leclerc's collision with the barriers took place in turn 9, and this time it has little to do with the track conditions. The onboard shows how he desperately tries to clinch the apex of the corner, as his SF-23 - probably for a couple of km/h in excess - doesn't want to complete the corner. Driver mistake or a limitation caused by the single-seater?

"A mistake like in Miami? No, this time I didn't do anything out of the ordinary. It was a difficult car to drive, even more so in these conditions... We have to improve quickly, at the moment it's difficult to understand what the car will do: there are corners in which we struggle from the beginning and we haven't found the solution. The level of downforce we have chosen is anomalous, but it's the best choice with what we have: we will have to bring an aero package that adapts to these kind of tracks. Tomorrow it will be an uphill race, it's difficult to overtake here"

Charles Leclerc

My personal opinion is that Charles, as he admitted in the TV pen, didn't make a maneuver completely out of his Ferrari's reach; instead, I believe that the maximum grip obtainable from the SF-23 itself is too low compared to what would be needed to be competitive. As analyzed yesterday, the understeer showed in turn 9 and a bit throughout the second sector is a problem that has accompanied Ferrari since the beginning of the year, and which manifests itself above all in very long corners.

The fact that both cars made into Q3 can only be explained for Ferrari by a good strategic execution in Q2, given that in terms of performance the Maranello team was behind Red Bull, McLaren, Williams, Mercedes and even Aston Martin today ... On other tracks it's likely that such a daunting scenario will not be repeated, but for now there are still 72 painful laps to be done in the race.

Six different cars in the top six places: is the field really close in terms of performance?

As we often find ourselves commenting in our post-qualifying or post-race analysis, the level of competitiveness in today's Formula 1 is prone to many ups and downs, mainly due to two factors:

  • The adaptability of each racecar to the characteristics of the various World Championship circuits (both in terms of aerodynamic load levels and tire wear);
  • The lack of understanding by the teams of their own single-seaters. The new Technical Regulations reward concepts that had been explored in F1 when today's technological tools weren't yet available, so it's understandable that in these first years of ground effect era, engineers struggle to find the right balance;

The only team (or rather, the only driver + car package) that has solved the equation that links the above-mentioned unknownsis the Verstappen - Red Bull duo. Even when opponents seem to be able to claw important results, Max immediately makes it clear that he has something in his pocket in order to get back in front. Today's qualifying is proof of it, with Norris, Russell and Albon settling for the remaining places in the first two rows. If the Dutchman didn't compete, our sport would live much more on the edge of uncertainty: but Max is there, and as an F1 fan I would say that dominations like his don't decrease the appeal of motorsport. If anything, they magnify it.

"Very complicated qualifying: we started with the intermediates, but the new asphalt was really slippery. We had to put together the lap while staying out of trouble. In Q3 we were able to use dry tyres and actually there was a trajectory with more grip. We ran some risks anyway, but in the end the last lap was really pleasant. Being able to give the maximum in front of these people is always wonderful"

Max Verstappen

“Second place is a good result in these conditions: you always hope Max makes a mistake, but he never does. In some ways it's frustrating. But I'm happy: the team did a good job in very chaotic qualifying. Such treacherous conditions make qualifying even more stressful than usual: the first half of my best lap was fantastic, but the second half was one of the worst. In any case, I like these conditions, where we've always done well... so I accept this second place!"

Lando Norris

Dom Romney / Motorsport Images

Among the three drivers mentioned, it's worth dwelling on the Anglo-Thai, whose performance in 2023 convinces me more and more of his skills behind the wheel. Even today's P4 is not the result of particular circumstances, it was won on merit and pure speed: first in Q1, third in Q2 and fourth in Q3. We know that in race conditions the technical limitations of the Williams FW46, combined with the probable comebacks of better equipped drivers who will start behind him, will make it almost impossible for Alex to keep the starting position; but hoping for a finish in the top 10 seems realistic - as well as on target with the Grove team's objectives for this second part of the Championship.

"It was a great qualifying... Russell and I provoked each other, also because we had engineers in common, but with 3rd and 4th place we went pretty well. So far it's been a fantastic day and weekend, the car has been very strong since FP1, and it's an unexpected result because as a team we normally consider ourselves not very strong on high downforce circuits. Today it went differently, so that's good!"

Alexander Albon

The #23 driver, with this result (which represents his best starting position since his seasons in Red Bull), also puts Fernando Alonso's Aston Martin behind him: even if the gap between the two was just less than a tenth of a second, the delta in terms of top speed between the FW46 and the AMR23 makes me think that Fernando could have problems trying to overtake Alex, should the latter find himself in front of the Spaniard after the start.

Russell overturns the prediction at Mercedes, Sainz does so at Ferrari...

The internal battle in two of the top teams, in this case Mercedes and Ferrari, sees qualifying positions completely reversed compared to what we saw after the free practices of just 24 hours ago.

Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

At Mercedes, George Russell's third place is echoed only by Lewis Hamiton's thirteenth: the latter will be forced to make a comeback that lowers his chances of getting a podium - a hypothesis that seemed popular after yesterday's performance. The reason for his elimination in Q2 has nothing to do with particular mistakes by the Englishman (as he immediately clarified), but depends on a strategic circumstance that penalized his best lap...

"I made no mistakes, in the end I tried to push to set the best laptime but I had to do two consecutive laps and my tyres wore out. The car hasn't been the same since FP1, I had so much confidence in that session, but we were no longer able to find the same feeling... We hope to redeem ourselves in the race tomorrow, even if we can't change the setup that much. This is the current situation"

Lewis Hamilton

"Great qualifying, I'm happy to be in P3. At the beginning of the year qualifying was my strength, then I lost something in quali trim... Tomorrow I hope I can fight for the podium [...] Mine was a good lap, after we had struggled to get the tyres up to temperature on a very wet track. Our weaknesses on Saturday become strengths on Sunday. We hope to have a good race, perhaps behind Max, who will have a good time in front of his fans"

George Russell

At Ferrari, as anticipated, it's the crash from Leclerc that put the Monegasque behind Carlos Sainz. Without the collision with the barriers in turn 9, it's likely that the Spaniard would have found his teammate ahead of him on the starting grid for tomorrow's race. It won't be like this, and between the two it will be Carlos who will take advantage of a starting position from which to have a clean afternoon.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

In any case, tomorrow's race will be a good test bench for Ferrari to assess the tyre degradation level (assuming there is no rain) on a very demanding track from this point of view.

What happened at the back of the field, and a prediction for the race!

At the back of the field, there were unflattering performances for Alpine, Alfa Romeo, Haas and Alpha Tauri: a partial excuse for the Faenza team was the debut of Liam Lawson to replace the injured Daniel Ricciardo. The last position (and the laptime) of the driver from New Zealand aren't exciting, but with only the 60 minutes of FP3 driving the AT04, we can say that Liam deserves way more time to be evaluated.

Dom Romney / Motorsport Images

Tomorrow the race will start at 15.00 CET. In the event of a dry race, I would say that Verstappen and Norris should be able to maintain the first two positions grabbed in qualifying. The third position prediction is more difficult, but my hypothesis is a comeback by Perez from the seventh starting position. Enjoy the race!

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