Italian GP Qualifying: an amazing pole for Sainz at Monza!

(Cover picture: XPB Images)

With a shocking final lap, Carlos Sainz gave the Ferrari crowd pole position in their home GP. Together with Charles Leclerc's third position, the fans in the Monza grandstand will have something to celebrate before the race... But let's go in order and analyze, as usual, what happened during qualifying!

Here are the final results of the session:

The battle between Ferrari and Red Bull goes to the Prancing Horse (for now)

At the end of free practices on Friday we said how Ferrari had tried to line up every possible element to maximize performance at Monza: the two new Power Units and the very low downforce aerodynamic setup, combined with a qualifying session without any mistake from the two drivers did their job perfectly... We're therefore on the eve of the race with Sainz in P1 and Leclerc in P3; between the two Ferraris there's not an easy opponent, indeed the worst possible: the same Max Verstappen who - even before getting out of the car after a P2 that doesn't satisfy him - clarified his will to sort things out on Sunday.

Jake Grant / Motorsport Images

If it is true that Sainz and Leclerc were flawless in their best lap, on the other hand the Dutchman made a couple of small mistakes. A hesitation at the exit of the "Variante della Roggia" and a suboptimal line at the two "Lesmo" corners - where up to that point the more loaded setup of the RB19 had made the difference - made Max's second sector not exciting, depriving him of his strong point against the two Ferraris, who were instead very quick in the first sector.

"I'm not surprised by Sainz's pole, their car adapts well to this track and it shows that they've brought a specific wing for this track. Tomorrow will be another story and everything is open, I will try to win and I'm not afraid for my safety: I really don't think I'm taking any risks because of the fans!”

Max Verstappen

Perez's step back from Friday to Saturday is as surprising as disappointing: the Mexican's confidence level at the wheel of his RB19 seems to have remained the same as yesterday, so I think the gap of almost 4 tenths compared to his teammate are down to an improvement of the latter. In fact, don't forget that Verstappen lost his FP1 session struggling with an overly loaded set-up, and that once this aspect had been sorted out, he had to rebuild his weekend and the confidence with the car. It took a while to arrive, but when he got there, it let him make the usual difference on Perez…

"Honestly it was an intense qualifying, especially in Q3. All three of us truly attacked and we were on the limit. On my last lap I knew I had some margin at Ascari and at Parabolica, so I pushed really hard there and it went well! As soon as I crossed the finish line, looking at the crowd on the in lap I never stopped getting goosebumps… At the hotel, on the track and wherever we go there's always support and encouragement, and this is the best feeling you can get as a driver. Tomorrow the target is the podium, and I will give everything to keep this position. Let's try to get a good start and have a good first stint to fight with Max, who is usually very fast"

Carlos Sainz

If we look at the history of the season at Ferrari, it's unlikely to find weekends in which Sainz has always been in front of Leclerc... But Monza has so far represented an exception to this rule, all the more so if we consider that since he's been in Formula 1, the Monegasque driver has never been beaten in qualifying at the Italian Grand Prix by his teammates. However, between FP1 and qualifying there were clear improvements for Charles, who reduced his gap from Carlos from around 3 tenths to 0.067s, to be exact.

"I'm a little disappointed because I wanted to be first, but seeing Carlos on pole is great for Ferrari. He did an incredible job all weekend, I struggled more in free practice, but in qualifying I managed to put everything together and I was happy... In Q3 I didn't have a slipstream, and this cost us at least one position. However, we have to be happy [...] We'll do everything to try and score a one-two with Carlos tomorrow. Forza Ferrari!"

Charles Leclerc

Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

A large part of that lies in the second sector, tackled brilliantly by Sainz in the way of exploiting his SF-23 especially when exiting the second Lesmo corner (an area made even more treacherous by the track limits' control enforcement). Furthermore, throughout the weekend no one tackled the "Variante della Roggia" as well as the Spaniard, and on a track where there are only 7 real corners it's understandable that this aspect made a big difference!

Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

The only thrill in Ferrari's qualifying came at the end of Q1, when an investigation was opened for both drivers regarding their slow pace in the out laps of their previous runs. To understand what we're talking about, we have to remember that the nature of the Monza track makes it very advantageous to stay in the slipstream of those in front, so historically the drivers have always tried to follow their rivals closely, if necessary proceeding at a very slow pace...

Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

To avoid the recurrence of similar situations, the Race Direction had imposed to everyone a laptime limit of 1'41" for their out laps, a time around 20 seconds slower than a normal flying lap. According to the stewards, cars number 16 and number 55 were the only ones to exceed the limit imposed! Luckily for Charles and Carlos, at the end of Q3 the marshals decided to pardon them... A way of not ruining their most important weekend of the year? Taunts aside, the decision to avoid penalties can be explained by the fact that the above-mentioned slow out laps were caused by the intention (later materialized) to let other cars pass by. Speaking more broadly, it can be said that thanks to this new rule we haven't seen those unpleasant episodes mentioned before, sowe can speak of a correct decision by the FIA.

A great lap from Russell saves the day for Mercedes, while Albon qualifies in P6!

Behind the first three drivers, George Russell's lap is truly worthy of mention, because being him in trouble (just like Hamilton) throughout the weekend, only at his last attempt he was able to put the other Mercedes-powered cars behind him, other than - unthinkable until this morning - Sergio Perez's Red Bull.

Jake Grant / Motorsport Images

Despite a gap of only a tenth and a half on his teammate, there are even three other single-seaters between Russell and Hamilton: the aforementioned Red Bull of Perez, the Williams of Alex Albon and the McLaren of Oscar Piastri.

"With this qualifying format you need to be reactive when switching from one compound to another, and I think we did a good job of managing it today. The engineers did a great job overnight and we started to work this morning, I felt more comfortable in the car [...] There's always talk of slipstream, but it's a double-edged sword; I chose to drive in clean air on every run, and today it worked well. Overall though, it was a session that demonstrates how in Formula 1 it's necessary to take care of every detail: in Q1 I didn't put the tyres in the right window and I finished P13, then in Q3 we finished P4. Now we have to focus on the race, and I hope to be able to fight for the podium"

George Russell

"The session wasn't the best: in the last run I didn't have the feeling I wanted with the car. We know how close the laptimes are in qualifying, and this also translates into a very similar race pace, which can make it difficult to recover positions, especially in the early stages of the race. George did a great job today to get on the second row, and I hope I can progress tomorrow too"

Lewis Hamilton

As mentioned, in sixth position - after a flawless weekend - we find the Williams of Albon, by now a constant presence in the top 10: the FW46, more in his hands than in those of Logan Sargeant (P15), seems to have "digested" well the qualifying format with the Alternative Tyre Allocation... This was especially true in Q2, when everyone drove on the Mediums and the gap from the lead was very little.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Being able to find a setup that proved to be optimal with all three tyre compounds is an excellent sign of flexibility for the Grove team, which can therefore rely on a fairly wide setup window (even just in terms of front wing angle of attack, being in parc ferme during qualifying).

"Honestly I would have expected something more, also because with 1 tenth of an improvement I would have been in P4 instead of P6! In any case, the session was very close, and all the time I felt I had a good car in my hands [...] The improvements made after each free practice session have been useful, and tomorrow I think we can fight against McLaren and Aston Martin, but not against Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes..."

Alexander Albon

The last two positions of the top 10 are occupied by Lando Norris' McLaren and Fernando Alonso's Aston Martin, whose cars have simply reached their technical "plateau" when their rivals (mainly Mercedes) were to extract the last tenths of performance in the last phase. Especially for McLaren, starting in P7 and P9 could be a rather serious problem, as the MCL60 we're seeing at Monza doesn't have a sufficient setup in terms of straight line speed and ability to overtake...

Alpha Tauri on the edge of Q3, disappointment for Alpine and Haas

Among the drivers outside the top 10 we find the two Alpha Tauris of Tsunoda (P11) and Lawson (P12), with a clear improvement compared to the results of free practice. If we consider that Lawson is only making his second appearance in Formula 1 after the last Dutch Grand Prix, in which he was called only on Saturday morning to replace the injured Daniel Ricciardo, his performance is nothing short of exceptional: the gap between Liam and Yuki it's just under 2 tenths, so I expect the demanding Red Bull management to be satisfied with the laptimes that the youngster born in 2002 is exhibiting so far.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Among the disappointments of the day, on the other hand, we find the two Alpines and the two Haas, for different reasons:

  • On the Alpine side, the straights in Monza exacerbated the lack of power of the french Power Unit, which left the team able to do little despite using a very low downforce rear wing. Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon finished in P17 and P18 respectively. Let's recall that discussions are currently underway about the possibility of granting Alpine more resources to develop their engine: an eventuality that they will be rooting for in Viry-Chatillon, but which they certainly wouldn't have wanted, given the premises of this season...
  • At Haas (with Nico Hulkenberg in P13 and Kevin Magnussen in P19) the circumstance that penalized today's result was linked both to the performance of the VF-23 and to the execution of the session: in Q2 Hulkenberg was the only driver to complete his best lap without benefitting from any slipstream... with an improvement of only 2 tenths, he could have been even in Q3!

Closing the starting grid for tomorrow's race there's Lance Stroll, who pays dearly for the lack of laps completed on Friday. As mentioned yesterday, the Italian Grand Prix is increasingly becoming a weekend to forget for the Canadian...

What to expect in the race? Can Ferrari fight for the win?

The race, scheduled for the canonical distance of 53 laps, is historically very short in its duration: the track has always had average speeds among the highest in the Championship, so the 300 km race is covered in less than 90 - often intense - minutes.

Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

What we saw yesterday and today portends a fight for win between Red Bull (especially in the form of Max Verstappen) and the two Ferraris, with Sainz on average quicker than Leclerc in his SF-23. However I believe that over the long runs, especially if the temperatures were to be similar to those experienced in qualifying (i.e. higher than on Friday), the issue of tyre degradation will emerge and could severely punish the two Ferraris: in such conditions, Sergio Perez's podium ambitions could easily materialize.

It is also very interesting to see how the fight between Williams and Mercedes for fifth place will develop (obviously imagining a straightforward Grand Prix): should a W14 find itself behind a FW46, on a strategic point of view there will be only one opportunity to overtake in the round of pit stops. In fact, the recommended strategies almost always involve a single pit stop, taking advantage of the hardest compounds in the range - C3 (Hard) and C4 (Medium) in this particular event.

Reminding you that you can follow Race Analysis on the social media pages of Instagram, X (formerly Twitter) and YouTube, see you on these pages to analyze what will happen tomorrow, starting at 15.00 CET. Enjoy the race!

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