Qualifying in Miami: Perez on pole, as Leclerc hits the wall!

As in Jeddah, it seemed like the perfect weekend for Max Verstappen: the free practice sessions saw him comfortably in the lead with an average margin of 4 tenths over his closest competitors, and pole position was clearly within his reach. But, once again in qualifying, bad luck got in the way and - thanks to a mistake in the first attempt in Q3 - his teammate Perez ended up on pole.

Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

Before analyzing everything that happened in qualifying for the Miami GP, here is the classification that makes up the starting grid for the race:

What exactly happened in Q3?

The 12 minutes of the last part of the qualifying session gave us a sequence of unexpected twists and turns for a track like Miami, which doesn't lend itself to driving mistakes compared to Monaco or Baku, just to mention two examples.

In the first of the two attempts Verstappen tackles the first sector with such aggressiveness that, I'm sure, if he had completed that lap he would have literally demolished his competitors... The problem is that the laws of physics apply to everyone, even to Max, and in turn 6 as he cut through the kerbs as if they didn't exist, his RB19 had a "snap" that compromised his line into turn 7.

Frustrated by the two mistakes that compromised his lap, Max decided to abort his attempt and return to the pits, confident of the possibility of setting a competitive laptime at the end of Q3...

In the meantime, Sergio Perez set a time of 1'26"841 and Fernando Alonso placed himself second with a 1'27"202... The two Ferraris, fast enough since FP1, had the opportunity to shuffle the cards by breaking into the first two rows: but as Carlos Sainz signed an uncompetitive laptime of 1'27"349 (actually 2 tenths worse than his best attempt in Q2), Leclerc went wide in turn 17 losing half a second there, and with it the possibility of slipping into second position between Perez and Alonso.

Telemetric comparison between Leclerc and Sainz in Qualifying in Miami

Telemetric comparison between Leclerc and Sainz in Qualifying in Miami

His laptime (1'27"861) only put him in seventh position, so Charles - like Max - found himself without a banker laptime that could prove a “buffer” in case of another mistake.

This is both the good and the bad part of qualifying in Formula 1: when a driver finds himself without a laptime to his name, he knows that he cannot afford a second mistake, which would have a decidedly impact on the economy of his race weekend... But at the same time they cannot afford to complete a "safe" lap, both because everyone knows very well what the potential of their single-seaters is (and they don't accept to settle for anything less), and because the concept of “enough” doesn't exist in their nature.

It's not inappropriate to talk about sporting generosity in this sense: accepting the risk of compromising his own Grand Prix in order to get the most out of it is something that only Motorsport - with its fast-paced rhythm - extract from these athletes. But generosity doesn't always pay off, and Leclerc verified it in the following minutes...

Charles' mistake comes in turn 7, just like in FP2!

Leclerc's second attempt starts under the banner of "all or nothing", and the Monegasque tackles the fast corners of the first sector without any safety margin. When he arrives at the infamous turn 7 (infamous because of the place of his accident at the end of FP2 on Friday), he cuts the kerb on entry putting it under his Ferrari. But his SF-23 is not a Red Bull, and this maneuver - which Verstappen and Perez have been able to afford since the first free practice - unsettles the rear causing a loss of aerodynamic load.

In this phase there is very little that Charles can do, because when the rear end lightens as it should rotate the car, the driver becomes a mere passenger. And, as you can see, the consequence of this loss of grip is a spin that sends the Ferrari driver into the barriers.

Driver error? A single-seater too unstable? Leclerc doesn't look for excuses, and in front of the microphones, he assumes full responsibility for what happened.

“Today I can find many excuses, such as the wind being too strong, but it was the same for everyone. The car is very difficult to drive, but I wanted this setup in qualifying. I knew it would be more difficult, but doing so would have greater potential. It is not acceptable to make the same mistake twice. I know qualifying is one of my strong points, I'm usually very good at getting the most out of the car in Q3 and I know that brings more risk. Tomorrow in the race I will do everything and we will see what we can do starting from seventh place, aware that we are in a different category to Red Bull. They have incredible tyre management, and it already showed in FP2. Tomorrow, however, I hope for a clean race and to be able to get back in front"
Charles Leclerc

The accident causes a red flag just over a minute and a half from the end of the session: too little to think of sending everyone back on track. So qualifying ends with an improbable order, in which outsiders abound from Magnussen in P4 or Gasly in P5 up to Alonso himself, who this year is indeed among the top teams, but by his own admission without the chaos in Q3 could have fought just for fifth position behind Red Bull and Ferrari (and instead he will start in second place!).

Jake Grant / Motorsport Images

Verstappen is among those who suffer the greatest consequences of this interruption, who therefore only ends up in P9 due to the impossibility of completing a proper lap due to the red flag. His Red Bull will allow him to make up for it in the race, as long as he doesn't get involved in an accident on the first lap (when usually there is a huge chaos in the middle of the pack...).

What scenarios open up for the race with such a "mixed" starting grid?

The presence of slow cars such as Magnussen's Haas in P4 and Gasly's Alpine in P5 will mean that the first three (in the starting order Perez, Alonso and Sainz) will try to open an important gap on the direct competitors who start far behind.

Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

In fact, the presence of the top teams on the grid sees more than a few absences in the noble areas of the starting grid:

  • George Russell (who just progressed from Q2) will start in P6;
  • Charles Leclerc (already discussed) will start in P7;
  • Max Verstappen will start in P9;
  • Lewis Hamilton (eliminated in Q2) will start in P13;
  • Lance Stroll (eliminated in Q1) will start in P18;

The strategies for the race provided by Pirelli see a single pitstop as the best option, starting on Medium tyres and then switching to the Hard tyres between lap 13 and lap 20 (out of a total of 57 laps).

A valid alternative could be a strategy based on two pitstops, starting on the Mediums and then fitting Hard and - on the occasion of the second pit stop - Medium again. Not surprisingly, most of the front runners have 2 new sets of Medium tyres available for the race. Such a strategy would allow them to get away from the traffic and take full advantage of the speed qualities of their single-seaters, especially if they get involved behind slower cars, but difficult to overtake ones.

Top Speed [km/h] during the Qualifying session in Miami
Top Speed [km/h] during the Qualifying session in Miami

An example of what has been said is the Haas, very fast on the straights but overall slow on the Miami track: if Magnussen were to manage to keep the fourth position after the first laps, perhaps creating a "DRS train" together with Gasly, this could be detrimental to the comeback of Leclerc and Verstappen.

If I had to make a prediction, I believe that - under normal conditions - at the end of the 57 laps of the race Sergio Perez will emerge victorious ahead of Max Verstappen and Fernando Alonso. But, as we now know, the unexpected is always around the corner: we just have to enjoy the race!

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