Monaco Qualifying, the essence of Formula 1: Verstappen on pole by less than 1 tenth ahead of Alonso and Leclerc

What a qualifying session in Monaco! Although the poleman Verstappen is no news this year, the dynamics that led to his pole position make Saturday in Monaco the best in the first half of 2023. Before analyzing what happened, here is this Saturday's final standings:

🏁 QUALIFYING CLASSIFICATION 🏁

And now, breathe. #MonacoGP #F1 pic.twitter.com/GRjqRPj4G6

— Formula 1 (@F1) May 27, 2023

Shivers in Q1: immediately a twist with Perez against the wall

We understood that these qualifying session would have been far from obvious since Q1, in which Perez incredibly loses control of his Red Bull at Sainte Devote (I would say that since it's Monaco, we can avoid calling it "turn 1"!) and crashes into the outside wall. End of the session for him, who will start the race in last position - unless he strategically replaces some components of his Power Unit, changes the set-up and starts from the pit lane.

Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Whatever the strategic choice of the Red Bull pit wall, last year's winner's Sunday sets to be uphill, with a difficulty in overtaking that in Monaco often becomes impossibility.

Together with him there are no other top drivers elimanted in Q1, where in fact Sargeant, the two Haas of Magnussen and Hulkenberg, and Zhou are out: all driver-car packages that hadn't shone since free practice, and which in fact will start from the rear of the grid.

Q2: the calm before the storm - Meanwhile, De Vries comes close to the feat!

Of the 3 manches that characterize qualifying, Q2 was undoubtedly the part that held the least surprises, although - speaking of the top teams - Stroll was eliminated by closing in an anonymous 14th position, while Hamilton progressed in Q3 by a whisker, almost out of time.

The evolution of the track, i.e. its progressive rubbering as the cars lapped, caused almost everyone to improve their laptimes in the final stages of Q2, and in this context Nyck De Vries on his Alpha Tauri missed Q3 by a blow. Nonetheless, his performance was excellent, with an 12th place that if it had been a top 10 would have relieved the enormous pressure that the Red Bull management (read Helmut Marko) is putting on his shoulders after a start to the season marked by too many mistakes ...

Explosive Q3, the talent of the drivers obscures the values of their cars

I think I'm not exaggerating when I say that the 12 minutes of Q3 were a cathartic moment for true Formula 1 enthusiasts. Seeing Verstappen, Leclerc, Alonso, Hamilton and Ocon (!) challenge each other on the edge of hundredths of a second on different machinery gave us the true dimension of the human - as well as technical - challenge faced by these champions.

Every bad side that Formula 1 has exhibited too consistently for some time (controversy, forced spectacularization, questionable penalties, absurd formats, etc.) was swept away by 12 minutes of dance between the walls of the Principality.

Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

A dance in which Verstappen, in his pole lap, hits the walls 3 times. Yes, you read that right, 3 times! The suspension of his RB19 held up, and Max finished the lap with +0.084 s on Alonso and +0.106 s on Leclerc.

"I'm very happy. We knew it would be a pain for us, putting everything together would not have been easy. We didn't start well, but we kept improving. Then in qualifying you have to give everything, you have to take risks. My first two sectors were not ideal in the last attempt. I was cautious, but I knew I was behind. I had to give everything I had in the last sector. I took a couple of barriers, but I'm really happy with pole here. Tomorrow it will be necessary to start cleanly. The road to turn 1 is short, but anything can happen... however on race pace the car is fantastic, that's not a problem. I just have to stay calm and have a clean race"

Max Verstappen

Let's go and see with the help of telemetry where the gap between the two main contenders for pole has matured.

Telemetry comparison between Verstappen (Red Bull) and Alonso (Aston Martin)

The telemetric analysis shows that Fernando Alonso has a more "ready" car than Verstappen in the first and second sector, most likely because he was able to warm up his tyres immediately in the out lap. This places him about two and a half tenths ahead of Max at the split of the second sector, but from then on the situation reverses: in the few corners of the third sector, the Dutchman drives furiously and regains all the gap built up previously.

"I feel good. Pole here means a lot, of course, but Max was a little quicker. It's a shame, but the front row on the grid is very important for us here. The last sector seems to be our weak point on this circuit, but we'll see tomorrow what we can do in terms of strategy, or if there will be some change with the weather. Turn 1? The road is very short, but we often get off to a good start. Max, on the other hand, is more fickle, maybe it could be one of his bad starts tomorrow, we hope so”

Fernando Alonso

In doing so, as mentioned, he touches the wall both with the front left tyre coming out of the last corner (Anthony Noghes) and even on the straight near the checkered flag (with the front right tyre). This qualifying lap by Verstappen reminded me of Michael Schumacher's pole - also in Monaco - in 1996, where in his first year with Ferrari he featured a similar masterpiece.

Telemetry comparison between Verstappen (Red Bull) and Leclerc (Ferrari)

The comparison between Verstappen and Leclerc highlights on the one hand the same strengths that the Dutchman had in comparison with Alonso's Aston Martin (the effectiveness in the third sector), on the other hand Leclerc's difficulty to drive an SF-23 which in the morning had undergone a setup change - without which it would have been impossible to achieve even the third position in which Charles classified.

The main problem that slowed down Leclerc's run-up to pole position was the incompatibility of his Ferrari's "soft" setup - essential for absorbing the bumps of the Monegasque track - with the reduced ground clearance, without which the aerodynamic downforce produced was going to be reduced. In fact, a lot of bottoming was triggered in FP3, especially in the section between the second and third sector (Swimming Pool chicane): since it was a high-speed section with particularly close walls, the setup trade-off went in the direction of raising the car, foregoing peak downforce values but allowing Charles to have more confidence in his car.

A nap of the Ferrari pit wall ruins Leclerc's traffic management: 3 places penalty for him

After his final qualifying lap, while Lando Norris was still busy pushing his McLaren to the limit, the Ferrari pit wall became the protagonist of one of the now many oversights we have witnessed this year: forgetting to warn Charles of Lando coming behind at full speed, a classic impeding situation arose in the dangerous section of the tunnel, which was then penalized demoting Leclerc of 3 positions on the grid. He will thus start in P6 and not in P3.

Jake Grant / Motorsport Images

Undoubtedly a shame that the excellent performance of the Monegasque on his home track was ruined by an blunder of his team, but rules are rules: in this case I consider the penalty imposed by the marshals correct. Leclerc's race thus becomes uphill, given the historic difficulty in overtaking on this street circuit: even if Charles stated that he wants to take back the podium, this target will certainly not be a walk in the park!

Alpine's surprise, Mercedes is only the fifth fastest car!

Continuing with the analysis of qualifying, in fourth place (which became third after Leclerc's penalty) we find Esteban Ocon's Alpine, which after the first attempt in Q3 was even on provisional pole position! Great performance by the Frenchman, who now sees the podium as a more than realistic possibility - provided he gets a good start and doesn't miss the right strategy calls.

Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

In my opinion, the true disappointment of the Monegasque Saturday is Mercedes, because if on the one hand we said we shouldn't expect wonders from the update package brought by the English-German team, on the other, even considering the usual level of performance expressed so far, it has to be considered insufficient being behind the Alpines, with Gasly also between Hamilton and Russell...

Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

“First of all, the team has done a great job in bringing these updates: they were immediately felt, especially for the front of the car. Our central sector was where we lost all weekend, so I made a change in qualifying, which made the last sector more difficult [...] I was really hoping Fernando would have pole at the end, the i saw and thought it would be great for him. But Red Bull was too fast. But Aston are now almost on par with Red Bull and this is phenomenal work, so I'm really happy for Aston and I hope we'll be there soon"

Lewis Hamilton

Strategies ahead of the race: the single pit stop is as sure as always in Monaco!

In Monaco, given the difficulty in overtaking, the track position is key: therefore we shouldn't expect anything other than a single pit stop, the timing of which will be dictated by the sole need to avoid the traffic of slower cars.

The simulations carried out by Pirelli show that among the possible permutations of each one-stop strategy, the fastest relies on starting on Medium tyres and then switching on the Hards in a window that goes from lap 30 to lap 38 (out of a total of 78 laps). Equally reliable is the alternative according to which the first stint, of shorter length, is run on Softs: although they are less durable and therefore prone to a greater performance degradation, they ensure a quicker start - which in Monaco means gaining one or two positions without having to give them up due to higher tyre wear.

The only unexpected event that could upset the planned strategies is the weather, with a non-negligible risk of rain. We'll see!