The sheer talent of Verstappen and Leclerc put on a great show in the qualifying session in Jeddah!

(Cover picture: Oracle Red Bull Racing)

Once again, the two strongest qualifiers in current Formula 1 put themselves ahead of everyone on Friday in Jeddah: Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc, in a front row that's identical to that of a week ago in Bahrain. But how did we come to this result, and what are the prospects for Saturday's Grand Prix? Let's find out after a quick look at the final classification...

The Red Bull advantage lies in Sector 1 of Jeddah: that's where Max built his pole!

Let's start our analysis saying that unlike a week ago in Sakhir, we can't talk about Leclerc losing pole position by a whisker, but rather about an optimization of the overall result by the Monegasque driver. In fact, Verstappen, among the long sweeping corners of this fast track, set a blistering pace right from Q1: the only way for Charles - and sometimes for Fernando Alonso - to set comparable laptimes was to use extra set of Soft tyres, or to take advantage of a more "rubberized" track; all factors being equal, there simply wasn't anything to do for everyone...

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Perez himself, after from two pole positions in Jeddah (in 2022 and 2023), was down 0.335 s on his teammate on the finish line. This demonstrates that, although the RB20 of the Red Bull duo was the fastest on the track, as constantly happens the World Champion adds that "Verstappen factor" to the already stellar level that one would expect in normal circumstances. However, speaking of Perez, although third place behind Leclerc's Ferrari doesn't acome as a miracle from the Mexican, from a race perspective it's certainly an excellent starting position.

Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

Qualifying ahead of a Red Bull certainly gives prestige to Leclerc's Friday. The Ferrari driver - as mentioned - pays for more than half of his gap of 0.319 s in Sector 1. Why, given that Ferrari opted for a medium-high downforce setup for this Saudi Arabian weekend?

In fact, you might have heard from various sources that the rear wing installed on the SF-24 since Free Practice 1 is the same one brought (and then used) in Bahrain: it's a medium-high downforce spec, on paper not suited to the high speed characteristics required here in Jeddah. The Maranello team has a lower downforce spec available, namely the 2023 one, but deliberately chose not to opt for this solution. Why? The answer to this question, in turn, also answers the previous question...

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If, on the one hand, we could have expected a stronger Ferrari in the first sector (due to the track layout), on the other hand we actually witnessed an unbeatable Verstappen in that portion of the racetrack... Analyzing the telemetry reveals therefore that Leclerc struggled in the traction zones, of which - needless to say - the first sector is fuller than the other two!

This explains why the Italian team needed a "bigger" rear wing: not because they expected an advantage in terms of tyre management (which still remains true), but because they needed to "disguise" a rather weak rear end, not so capable of transfering the Power Unit's horsepower to the ground without causing the rear tyres to spin. The main suspect in this lack of traction is the rear suspension, an element which during the winter had been criticized on several occasions as the result of choices more linked to mechanics than to aerodynamics, in contrast with what was done by almost all the other teams on the grid.

Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Well, figuring out that even mechanically this pull-rod rear layout isn't the best is certainly a disappointment... But there's one more element that we cannot overlook, because I think it will be a leitmotif of Ferrari's season: the SF-24 is proving to be very gentle on the tyres, to the point of not being able to "turn them on" quickly in qualifying. In fact, you will have noticed how Leclerc, in the first flying lap attempt in Q3, carried out two warm-up laps instead of just one (as usual): in the press conference Charles said that it was an "attempt to do something different" , a pretty cryptic sentence... in my opinion, the reference is to the difficulty in warming up the tyres, as just mentioned.

To close this chapter, it must be said that such a feature isn't necessarily a bad thing for a single-seater; if you think about it, even the Red Bull RB19 that dominated the last World Championship had a similar tendency! The upside, in fact, lies in not overheating the tyres during the race, a factor that can lengthen the drivers' stints and broaden the range of strategies available to the engineers at the pitwall.

Alonso masterfully fourth ahead of the McLarens and Mercedes!

In fourth position we find Fernando Alonso, who qualified even better than in Bahrain despite a car whose most suitable position would be just ahead of the midfield, a bit where his teammate Stroll placed today (P10, +1.100 s). Two qualifications out of two brought home with results beyond the most optimistic expectations are a pretty good haul for the Asturian driver, who certainly showed his talent more on Sunday than on Saturday throughout his career: perhaps Saturdays are his problem, as the last two qualifying sessions were held on Friday?!?

Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

Jokes aside, in the race I don't expect an equally superlative performance from Aston Martin, since - as seen at the end of Free Practice 2 - tyre degradation on the AMR24 tends to be significant after a few laps from the start of each stint. A weird fact, in total contrast to the chassis qualities of last year's AMR23, which instead allowed multiple podiums... Clearly, the aerodynamic choices defined as "aggressive" by Technical Director Dan Fallows himself aren't supported by an equally strong chassis platform, which could be a big problem for the English team in terms of future developments.

Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

Following Fernando are the two McLarens of Piastri (P5, +0.617 s) and Norris (P6, +0.660 s), and the two Mercedes of Russell (P7, +0.844 s) and Hamilton (P8, + 0.988 s). Large gaps, which in the race can - at best - be closed by a couple of thenths per lap compared to the benchmark that Red Bull still represents. Much more important is the direct comparison between these two teams and Ferrari, which in 2024 seems to have the minimum target of being ahead of them.

The lack of consistency shown today by Russell (huge mistake on his decisive lap in Q3) and Hamilton (not at ease with his W15 throughout the weekend so far) certainly mark a step in this direction, although the early assumptions of a few weeks ago were very different. The only unknown is about the laptimes on which they will be able to set theit race pace, given that in the long run simulations during Free Practice 2 they ran too few laps in "race trim".

Great job for Oliver Bearman replacing the convalescent Sainz

In eleventh position, just a whisker away from progressing into Q3, we find Oliver "Ollie" Bearman with a laptime of 1'28"642. In fact, this Friday started with the news at Ferrari of Carlos Sainz's withdrawal due to a appendicitis, for which surgery was necessary.

Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

This triggered the use of Ferrari's third driver, Bearman: the 18-year-old Englishman had to abandon his Formula 2 weekend (in which he's competing this season) to jump into the cockpit of Sainz's SF-24. If we think that Ollie only had an hour of free practice (FP3) available before making his debut in an official Formula 1 qualifying, this makes it even more clear how great a performance he pulled off today...

Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

During tomorrow's race there will be some key moments for him, above all the start and the pit stops: typical situations for which it's difficult to train, and which require a great deal of experience to be managed in the best possible way. Likewise, tyre management in each stint will also be a factor that Bearman will have to pay particular attention to... Adding up all these unknowns, I would say that finishing the race in the points would already be an excellent achievement for him!

Alpine once again out in Q1, while Zhou fails to set a laptime

Scrolling through the final classification, among the last 5 places "reserved" for those eliminated in Q1 we find, once again after the disastrous Bahrain event, the two Alpines of Ocon (P17) and Gasly (P18): little to say, except that at least this time the two French drivers managed to get ahead of a car, the Williams of Logan Sargeant (then in P19).

Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Actually, the very last on the grid is Guanyu Zhou, unable to complete a flying lap in his Stake. In fact, during FP3 he had a fairly severe crash (from which he fortunately emerged unscathed) in Turn 8, triggered by a loss of grip of the rear end: his team's mechanics did everything they could to repair the car just in time, but for a handful of seconds the Chinese driver took the chequered flag as he was unable to complete, as mentioned, a flying lap.

Unexpected events and strategies: what to expect from the race?

The 50 race laps at the Jeddah track will give us a new interpretation of what we saw in Sakhir just a week ago: there are still many questions up to debate, above all regarding the high-fuel performances of Ferrari and Mercedes (each of which had their own problems last Saturday...).

On a strategic standpoint, only one pit stop is expected, with the Medium and Hard compounds being the obvious choices in "green flag" race conditions (i.e. without a Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car); in the latter cases, however, it may be useful to have a set of new Soft tyres. Another key issue will be the straight line speed, considering that this track has 3 long DRS zones: on paper - and based on what we saw today - Red Bull should be better off than Ferrari, just as Mercedes seems to have very low-downforce wings, hoping to gain positions at least over their McLaren "customers"!

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