"Fiesta Ferrari" in Mexico: what a domination by Sainz!

(Cover picture: F1)

A truly different Mexican Grand Prix from the usual ones, the one we witnessed yesterday! At the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, hunting ground of Red Bull and Mercedes since Formula 1 returned to race there in 2015, it was Ferrari and McLaren that shone. But above them all the performance of Carlos Sainz stands out, who completes one of his best weekends in career by achieving a landslide success. On the podium with him were Norris and Leclerc, for what could have been a Ferrari one-two but wasn't, even though it put the team from Maranello frighteningly close to the Woking one in the Constructors' Championship...

A victory never in question for Sainz, even after an unhappy start

After a brilliant pole position to say the least, it must have been a real blow for Carlos to be overtaken by Max Verstappen at the start. As we said on the eve of the race, the Mexican track is one that doesn't really reward the pole sitter due to the long distance (767 metres) from the finish line to the braking point at Turn 1, so - as one might have expected - Verstappen had an easy time of it, though not without forcing him onto the grass at the entry of Turn 2. But, as we'll see, this aggressive move is one of the "cleanest" Max made yesterday during the race...

Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

Having lost first position, there was no way for Sainz to regain it on the first laps, as the crash in the middle of the pack at the start between Albon and Tsunoda (with both forced to retire) had immediately triggered the Safety Car intervention. As was understood from the race pace simulations on Friday, however, it was going to be difficult for the World Champion to hold the lead for long, as his RB20 didn't allow him to be effective in the twisty third sector, which would have left him prey to the faster Ferraris and McLarens.

Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

On lap 9, the first real opportunity to use DRS, the Spaniard took the slipstream of the Dutchman's Red Bull and overtook him in Turn 1 without misjudging the braking point: a perfect move, even more so given that it was against the most difficult driver to overtake in Formula 1. But this time not even Max had a chance to counter this move, even though there was another straight before Turn 4 in which to try and counter-attack.

Dom Romney / Motorsport Images

From then on, the Ferrari driver simply pulled away and was able to manage the race pace as he wished, without ever really being attacked by anyone: in short, for the second time in two weekends we find ourselves commenting on a race dominated by Ferrari, a technical scenario that has not been seen for a very long time (one might say early 2022, but in that case Verstappen's Red Bull was a constant threat that would soon turn into a steamroller...). With the level of performance displayed in the last few races, starting with Monza, it's not inconceivable that the comeback in the Constructors' Championship could materialise...

At the moment, as you can see above, the distance from the Woking team is decreasing, and right now there's a 29-point gap; and while the upcoming track layouts on which they will be racing are favourable for the papaya crew, it must be pointed out that at Maranello they're making far fewer procedural errors in weekend management. This could be a key factor, as Oscar Piastri's elimination in Q1 on Saturday demonstrates: despite an (unspectacular) comeback, the Australian couldn't do better than 8th place, guaranteeing his team a small contribution of 4 points, which cannot be in any way satisfactory, given that the designated opponents were close to a second consecutive one-two...

Verstappen and Norris clash as the Englishman triggers Max's "bad side"...

Having mentioned the Constructors' Championship situation, which we couldn't relegate to the end of the analysis because of its importance in the balance of this season, let's get back to the report of the race.

With Sainz unbeatable in front, Verstappen was soon caught by Norris: and on lap 10 the Englishman tried a very ambitious attack on him on the outside of Turn 4. The Red Bull driver's response was fierce: with a precision second only to his aggression, Max pushed Lando out, forcing him onto the grass (but coming back on track just ahead of him)... As if that wasn't enough, three corners later the same Max tried a silly overtake in Turn 7, well aware that it would have been impossible to complete the corner without leaving the track. But he didn't care about that, as on this occasion Charles Leclerc was able to gain two positions and move up to second: what mattered to him was keeping his Championship rival behind him, at all costs...

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

This cost was immediately quantified by the FIA stewards as two penalties of 10 seconds each to be served in the pitlane during his pitstop. The World Champion, aware that he had made two dirty manoeuvres (which, sure enough, he would do again straightaway) accepted the 20-second cumulative penalty without putting up much of a complain... But the aspect that many have overlooked is that, from that moment on, he managed to "block" Norris long enough for him to lose ground to the two Ferraris in the lead. And to some extent the plan worked, because it was only on lap 26 that the Red Bull pitstop left the McLaren driver free to set the laptimes his MCL38 allowed him; but by then it was too late, and the most Lando could do was to snatch the second place from Leclerc.

Third place well taken by Leclerc, but what a risk in Turn 17!

It is worth dwelling for a moment on Leclerc's second half of the race compared to Norris', because as soon as they both (with Sainz about 8 seconds ahead) found themselves on Hard tyres, the inertia of the race changed somewhat. The gap of 4.8s that separated the McLaren from the Ferrari immediately after their pitstop was gradually eroded, thanks also to the Monegasque's difficulty in lapping Liam Lawson and Lance Stroll, which instead - not intentionally - proved to be much less compromising for the Englishman.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Another reason for the SF-24's inferior pace compared to the MCL38 in thatphase lies in Leclerc's need to use the technique of lift and coast, which in this case was more necessary to contain Power Unit and brake system temperatures than to save fuel (the main reason why you usually find yourself lifting your foot off the gas a hundred metres before the braking zone). In any case, it has to be said that - as also in Austin - the harder the tyre compound, the narrower the competitive advantage of Ferrari over McLaren: yesterday, to be fair, there was a real turnaround in this respect, as witnessed by Norris's narrowing of the gap to Sainz from 13.5 s to 4.7 s over the entire last stint. On the other hand, we have to wonder how much pace in hand Sainz had, while being in full control of his lead...

In any case, coming to the episode that cost Leclerc second position (and, with it, the chance for Ferrari to celebrate two consecutive one-twos after Austin), we're on lap 62 - with 9 still to go: the McLaren is in the Ferrari's mirrors, and in an attempt to maximise traction coming out of Turn 17 and onto the main straight with the best possible momentum, Leclerc loses control of the rear end of his SF-24 due to an outer line compared to the optimum one; the following car control is spectacular, and no one knows how, but car number 16 avoids the barriers by a whisker.

At that point in time, the loss of second place could be considered absolutely secondary, as the chances of finishing on the wall and ending the Mexican weekend with zero points were, for a moment, very high. In the final stages, then, the Ferrari pitwall was brave enouth - also taking advantage of the 30-second gap with the Mercedes in fourth and fifth - to pit Charles to allow him to get the fastest lap, and with it the additional point that until then was in the hands of Lando Norris himself. Mission accomplished: a laptime of 1'18‘335 on the last lap (number 71) on Soft tyres, and that was the end of Charles’ race.

Mercedes third fastest car in a lonely fight, with a race pace even better than Verstappen

Behind the three drivers who monopolised the spectacle at the front of the race, the contest for fourth position was a private affair between the two Mercedes of Hamilton and Russell, who finished the race in exactly that order, in fourth and fifth. From the battle between the two, which lived for many laps on Russell's obstructionism despite Hamilton having more pace on Hards, many interesting insights emerged.

Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Indeed, as Team Principal Toto Wolff confirmed after the race, the W15s had deliberately set up with two very different aero-mechanical configurations, with the goal in mind of looking for a development path for the 2025 car. And the fact that the setups of the Brackley cars were polar opposites became clear in the aforementioned duel, during which Russell was often untouchable due to better traction in the slow corners of the third sector, those leading onto the long main straight. From the finish line onwards, in fact, Hamilton despite the DRS was unable to get within striking distance of his teammate, something he only managed on lap 66.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

In addition to this, another interesting insight on the performance levels on the field emerged as Verstappen's comeback (after serving his pitstop penalty) against the Mercedes literally plateaud. The gap between the aforementioned pair and the Red Bull driver remained pretty much identical, with a slight tendency to widen over the last 30 laps: this demonstrates, in our opinion, that Max' urgency and aggressiveness in the early stages against Lando Norris were also dictated by the awareness that, with a much slower pace than McLaren's, letting his direct rival by would have meant seeing him again only after the chequered flag. With this we don't want to justify his race conduct, but we believe it's one of the probable reasons that led him to want to ruin Lando's race.

Nightmare race for Perez and Alonso, in a GP that should have been special

As usual, let's close our race analysis with what happened in the midfield: on this occasion the "winning" team was Haas, who with Magnussen in P7 and Hulkenberg in P9 were able to collect 8 crucial points against VCARB. Much of the credit for this result was, in addition to a really solid race pace, in being able to run the race away from troubles and traffic that are never lacking in the middle of the pack, something that also - albeit in part - Pierre Gasly, who finished in P10, was able to do.

Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Speaking of troubles and bad luck, the two unluckiest drivers of the weekend are definitely Fernando Alonso and Sergio Perez: for both of them the Mexican GP promised to be a special weekend... For the Asturian, in fact, it was appearance number 400 in Formula 1, a feat that no one has ever managed to achieve in the history of the sport. Sure, Championships now feature many more races than in past decades, but it's weird to think that the two-time World Champion made his F1 debut when many of his rivals this year hadn't even been born: Fernando's sporting longevity is an example of passion and dedication which, ironically, the Spaniard was unable to celebrate worthily due to a retirement for mechanical problems, on lap 16.

Dom Romney / Motorsport Images

With regard to Perez's race, however, it goes without saying that in front of his home crowd Checo was desperate to make a good impression and salvage a 2024 World Championship that has so far been giving him little satisfaction. Instead, starting from P18 the Red Bull driver's comeback never materialised, also due to a battle that ended badly with Lawson: here too it could be a rather mocking fate, given that the New Zealand driver is in contention to replace the Mexican next season, if not already during the last races of this year. Perez's Formula 1 career is therefore likely to come to an end, but we'll soon find out more...

Off to Brazil for the Interlagos classic, also this year with the Sprint format!

In the meantime, the Circus never stops, and this weekend the round at Interlagos will close the first of the two triple headers that will decree the 2024 World Champion. The track located outside São Paulo, due to its layout, lends itself very much to overtaking: therefore, as has been the case since 2021, the weekend's format will be the Sprint one.

Another element in the plot of a thrilling World Championship battle to which we look forward to adding this 21st chapter. See you soon!

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