Japanese GP Qualifying: ninth pole position in 2023 for the insatiable Max Verstappen

(Cover picture: Phillip Horton - X)

What a performance from Max Verstappen in the Japanese GP qualifying! The World Champion, determined to ensure that the Singapore race remains a unicum in this 2023 season, scored the ninth pole position out of 16 qualifications rounds held. But what is impressive is the gap inflicted on his direct rivals, over half a second on the two McLarens of Piastri (P2) and Norris (P3).

This is the final classification after qualifying in Suzuka:

The resistance of the two McLarens lasted until Q2, after which Max pulled the rabbit out of his hat

The Japanese qualifying sessions had a rather linear progression, where the only interruption (in Q1, for the record) occurred due to the accident of Logan Sargeant's Williams in Turn 18. The American driver fortunately emerged unscathed, but this crash adds to a rather long list of accidents in the last Grands Prix: Logan's seat, after the confirmation of Tsunoda and Ricciardo in Alpha Tauri, remains the only one not yet assigned for 2024... It goes without saying that the driver from Fort Lauderdale will have to try to reduce his mistake rate between now and the end of the season if he wants to be confirmed, especially now that a solid driver like Liam Lawson seems relegated to the role of third driver for both Red Bull and Alpha Tauri.

Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Coming back to the qualifying themselves, Q1 ended with first position for Verstappen ahead of the McLarens of Norris and Piastri, separated by the Ferrari of Leclerc and the aforementioned Lawson in his Alpha Tauri. Already in the first part of the qualifying, therefore, we appreciated the performance levels that we later found once again in Q2 and Q3; a big difference, however, lies in the fact that while in Q1 the gap inflicted by Verstappen on the English driver's McLaren MCL60 was between 2 and 3 tenths of a second, as the track progressively became more "rubbered", the gap inexorably widened.

"The first lap was really solid, I'm happy with what I did; the second lap was good in the first sector, but not so good in the other two. I'm still happy with 2nd place, so far it's been a great weekend for the team and we have brought updates to the car. We think we have a good chance in the race, but we need to deliver"

Oscar Piastri

“It was an excellent day for us as a team: 2nd and 3rd place. Oscar did a great job today and as always Max did too, but it was a great day. It's not an easy circuit to put together a good lap, a small mistake is enough to lose a lot of time... We hope to get a good result tomorrow, but it will be difficult because Max is doing a great job. We will try to make his life difficult!"

Lando Norris

Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Even the fearsome first sector, which magnifies the driving skills as well as the chassis and aerodynamic qualities of the single-seaters, went more and more into Red Bull's hands compared to McLaren (at least in the hands of the Dutchman, as teammate Perez was once again slower today...). In the final lap of Q3, the gap relative to the first sector alone was 4 tenths net in favor of Max, who was therefore able to afford a few less risks in the rest of the lap.

“I want to thank the fans who supported us throughout the weekend, they have a great passion for Formula 1 and I thank them for coming. For our part it was an incredible weekend, especially in qualifying, when you can really push to the limit [...] We are coming off a negative weekend, but I felt that this would be a track for us, even if you can't know for sure. From the first lap we went very well and managed to find improvements here and there... Taking pole here is fantastic!”

Max Verstappen

Analysis of the sector times among Red Bull, McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes

To better understand the performance of each driver - car package in the Japanese GP qualifying, it may be useful to analyze the split times obtained in the three sectors of the Suzuka track by the top 8 finishers (i.e. the 4 pairs of drivers at Red Bull, McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes):

Driver S1 S2 S3 Laptime [s] Gap [s]
Verstappen 30"725 40"311 17"841 1'28"877 -
Piastri 31"173 40"356 17"929 1'29"458 +0"581
Norris 31"025 40"421 18"047 1'29"493 +0"616
Leclerc 31"240 40"363 17"939 1'29"542 +0"665
Perez 31"152 40"528 17"970 1'29"650 +0"773
Sainz 31"332 40"564 17"954 1'29"850 +0"973
Hamilton 31"312 40"616 17"980 1'29"908 +1"031
Russell 31"547 40"624 18"048 1'30"219 +1"342


As can be seen, net of Verstappen's better performance in all three sectors (as mentioned with a much higher margin in S1 than in S2 and S3), there are minor differences between the other 3 teams. I feel like saying that in the third sector no one can make the difference anymore: including only the fast "130R" - with the current cars little more than a straight, easily tackled without taking your foot off the gas - and the "Casio Triangle" chicane, after which Curve 18 leads to the finish line, there are no spots where the greater aerodynamic downforce or better traction of a given single-seater can guarantee a significant advantage over rivals. In fact, although very large differences can be observed over the entire lap, limiting the analysis for a moment to the mere S3, we realize that the maximum delta is less than 2 tenths of a second.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

A section in which, however, we witnessed differences was the middle sector (S2). The key points of this sector are the slow hairpin of Turn 11 and the "Spoon Curve" (Curve 13 and Turn 14, according to the official numbering), a double left-hand bend with two apexes that are very difficult to hit. Precisely in this section we find the most marked differences in terms of split time between teammates: Verstappen inflicts 2 tenths on Perez, Leclerc 2 on Sainz and Piastri just less than 1 on Norris. The only "balanced" team in this respect was Mercedes, with Hamilton better than Russell by only 8 thousandths!

The seventh and eighth positions of Hamilton and Russell, thinking of their Mercedes W14 as a car capable of expressing itself better in the race than in qualifying trim, can be seen as the best possible result for Saturday. Of course, given the form of Red Bull and McLaren, it seems difficult to challenge their drivers, but a fight against the two Ferraris could be more plausible if tyre degradation were to be - as in reality it seems - key for the GP outcome.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

The two Ferraris, as mentioned, will start the race from P4 and P6: Leclerc himself, today faster than Sainz unlike the last two rounds in Monza and Marina Bay, knows well that the 53 laps of tomorrow's race could easily become an ordeal if, without a good strategy, he were to find himself behind both the Red Bulls and the McLarens... In that case, his hopes of a podium would almost certainly be dashed by the accentuated tyre degradation that the SF-23 showed in the long runs of Friday.

"We pay a lot of time in the first sector from both Red Bull and McLaren. In my fastest lap I thought I had done an excellent first sector, but instead I'm several tenths away. But we need this because we have to analyze our weak points compared to them, to understand how to improve in the future [...] Regarding Red Bull, we know that there is often a big difference between Max and Checo in qualifying trim, but in full load conditions their performances are much closer. This is why I'm sure that tomorrow Checo will be very fast. It will be difficult to overtake on the track, so we will have to be very good at the start and in terms of strategy. Then we will have to be careful about tyre overheating, which is important on this track. So I think it will be a question of tyre management!"

Charles Leclerc

"This morning and yesterday I tried to change several things in terms of setup, but it didn't work and we had to go back to a setup that I know better. Then obviously I didn't have much time to get into the rhythm, and this compromised my weekend in general [...] Charles did a very fast lap, but on my last lap I didn't have a clean first sector, which widened our gap [...] I think the McLaren will be at least a tenth faster tomorrow too, which in 53 laps is a lot... But with an undercut maybe we could have a chance, anything can happen"

Carlos Sainz

The decline at Aston Martin continues: now McLaren is a threat in the Constructors' Championship!

As we saw during yesterday's free practice, the performance that the Aston Martin AMR23 manages to put on track at this moment of the Championship is too little to hope for a battle with Mercedes and Ferrari, but that's pretty clear since a few races... What is surprising instead if we think back to the first races of 2023 is that even McLaren, which started very badly at the beginning of the season, is risking of finishing ahead of the Silverstone-based team in the Constructors' Championship!

"We were in P14 in Q1, then in P10 in Q2, and again in P10 in Q3, so always on the edge of the cut. It's a difficult weekend, we were a bit worried on paper about the high-speed corners and the nature in Suzuka, as we are also in Qatar, which is perhaps not the best circuit for us. But, even on the most difficult days, we still managed to be in Q3, thanks to very good laps; this type of qualifying, once again, will go unnoticed by many people, but I'm very proud of it"

Fernando Alonso

As the season unfolds, it becomes increasingly clear how - net of procedural errors on the Woking side or Silverstone side - the development plan was polar opposites for the two above-mentioned teams. Aston Martin, in particular, immediately put on track an AMR23 capable of repeatedly reaching the podium and being second only to the Red Bull RB19; as the GPs went by, however, this initial push ran out, and Alonso's sequence of top 5 finishes gave way to two ninth places and a "zero", in the last race in Singapore.

Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

At McLaren, however, the results literally went up, especially thanks to the confidence that Team Principal Andrea Stella was able to instill in the Woking Technical Department. After the first races without points, it would have been very easy to lose track and look for easy remedies for the MCL60's poor performance; instead, at the cost of wasting more time, Stella wanted to do things right by reconstructing the aerodynamic platform of the car in order to exploit it as much as possible. Of course, the MCL60 still has some "structural" limitations, but the situation is completely different from that of last spring!

A prediction for tomorrow's podium... What to expect in the race?

The 53 laps of the race will start at 7.00 am CET: as already mentioned, the theme of the Grand Prix will be the ability to manage the tyres as best as possible, in order to be quick at the end of each stint (when the undercut risks materialize). I also believe that the preferential strategy will feature two pit stops, trying to maximize the use of the Medium compound, the right compromise between the performance of the Softs and the durability of the Hards.

In linear conditions, I expect a podium with Max Verstappen ahead of Lando Norris' McLaren and the other Red Bull, that of the Mexican Sergio Perez. It's very difficult, in my opinion, for Ferrari and Mercedes to reach the top 3: the aforementioned tyre degradation hangs on Ferrari, while the starting positions are going against Mercedes, which will most likely force Hamilton and Russell into traffic.

Only tomorrow will we find out whether this prediction will come true or not... Have a good race!

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